Publishers Launch Conferences

Finding your next book, or, the discovery problem


A big flap has arisen this week — which I believe I would have been equally aware of had I been home in New York rather than in London — because the giant UK books-and-stationery retailer WH Smith has apparently found inappropriate ebooks being recommended through the kids books portions of the Kobo-managed ebook offering they host. This has sparked a lot of conversation about how recommendations — indeed how curation — is managed in the online environment. In this case, the discussion is about the specifics of this problem and how metadata might have been wrong, gamed, misunderstood. This has resulted in Smith’s turning off their whole web site, which contains the Kobo-offered ebooks, while the problem is “fixed”. It’s a mess that points to how far we are from solving core challenges of selling books in a virtual environment.

Online bookselling has a long way to go before it can deliver even what it intends to deliver in response to a search or to prompt a next sale. Of course, there are two additional and larger problems that come first: knowing what the right suggestion(s) would be and being able to make enough of them to match the book shopping experiences online sales must replace.

Analysis offered by Russ Grandinetti of Amazon at our Publishers Launch Frankfurt conference last week suggested that the US and UK are on the verge of transacting more than 50% of the book business online, with other markets in Europe and Asia not more than two or three years behind. (This may understate the real state of affairs; in a meeting I just had in London I was told that one of the biggest UK publishers says that 60 percent of their sales of print, ebooks, and audio are through Amazon!) Online sales of books were probably in the neighborhood of 10%, or less, for most publishers a decade ago. That shift is why retail shelf space has diminished so much, with major chains having sunk in both of the big English-speaking markets (and in smaller ones as well).

When most books were bought in physical locations, it was axiomatic that a book displayed in a store had an exponentially greater chance of selling than one that wasn’t, despite wholesale supply in the US from Ingram and Baker & Taylor that could get almost any book to almost any store in 24-48 hours. It had to be seen in the store to be bought. Competent commercial trade publishers knew there was very little point to pushing a book through marketing efforts if inventory wasn’t in place at retail, because seeing the book at the time you might buy it was a more powerful trigger for purchase than any other. Indeed, all the other stimuli (reviews, suggestions from friends, conversation at the office) tended to be acted upon only when the presence in the store was in proximity to the suggestion or recommendation. (And that’s why recommendations from clerks in the store were the most powerful recommendations of all: hence the concept of “hand-selling”.)

One problem with the change to online buying from the discovery perspective is that the funnel for each shopper keeps getting narrower. It isn’t hard for somebody in a bookstore to look at hundreds of books in a few minutes. It’s nearly impossible online. This either requires the consumer to spend more time shopping to see the same number of titles they used to see in a store, or to make a decision having seen fewer. And the concern is that the decision that gets made having seen fewer can be not to buy anything at all. (Or, particularly in the case of tablet users, to buy something other than books.)

Of course, in theory, being able to present a personally-curated batch of suggestions for each customer could be far more precisely targeted than what a store can do, and, in that case, fewer titles shown might do the same job. But we are a long way from that. And, for reasons I hope this piece will make clear, personally-curated choices would actually be far more likely to be delivered by Google than by Amazon (although they would raise a host of what would be considered big privacy concerns to a lot of customers by doing it). And that’s not a reflection on the quality of anybody’s programmers, and certainly not of their commitment to their customers.

The technology that hopes to help you “pick your next book” is referred to as a “recommendation engine”. I’ve never been on the inside of such an effort but the thinking behind them seems to center around analyzing what books you’ve bought and what you’ve searched for and, from that, figuring out what you might read next. This might be based on analysis of the content itself (e.g. Pandora recommending music of similar style and quality) and/or collaborative filtering models — leveraging user inputs (purchase history, ratings, and reviews) to make recommendations for other similar users (“people who bought x also bought y”). It all recalls for me the experience of being told when I met a great bookseller, the late Joel Turner, at the 1978 American Booksellers convention in Atlanta, that “if a customer walks up to my cash register with five books, I can always sell him a sixth”.

Of course, over time, a bookseller can fill out that knowledge with even more data as they see more and more purchases and get to know their customers, and perhaps their families. But, in fact, using books bought as a guide to recommendations is an incomplete data set. It can also be a misleading one since people buy books for people other than themselves.

Another way to look at it came from my friend, Andrew Rhomberg.  Based on his experience with start-up Jellybooks, he formulated five major book discovery paths: serendipitous, social, distributed, data-driven and incentivized.

The point is that most people get their ideas about what to read next from many sources: people they talk to, reviews, news reports, business interactions. Some people say they get book recommendations from their friends; others (like me) say they don’t often read the same things their friends or relatives read. I suspect that online communities of readers tend to work best for people who do a lot of reading in genres and not nearly as well for people who mix fiction and non-fiction, entertainment and learning. And some people gravitate to what’s popular, so bestseller lists work best for them. It is clear that getting on a bestseller list fuels a book’s sales.

And books are bought for motivations other than “to read”, so it might also be important to know that a customer’s son is having a birthday, that a customer’s cousin is getting married, that a customer is shopping for a new home or looking for a new job or starting on a new hobby or spending money on an old one.

Few, if any, of these things would be apparent to even the most diligent hand-selling bookstore personnel. Bits and pieces of it might be detectable by the super-merchant Amazon (but not likely to any other).

This is one devilishly complex problem. There are countless potential inputs to the “next book purchase” decision and they are processed by each different individual in a highly personalized way. If you think it through, it seems obvious that most recommendations to most people wouldn’t work. Which takes us back to the need to make a lot of them, which a bookstore display does much better than online pages that show 10 or 20 books at one time.

In the long run, it would seem to me that Google is the entity best-positioned to address this challenge if they can somehow combine the knowledge of what you searched for (which they know), with what you read online (which they could know if you use Chrome for your browser), and the topics and book titles that have appeared in your emails (which they could know if you use Gmail) and the things you ‘like’ and talk about online (if you use Google+). Knowing your travel plans and patterns would be helpful too.

Of course, unless you use Google Play for ebook purchase and consumption, they’d be missing the two most important bits of data — what you bought and how voraciously you read it and they still wouldn’t know your print book purchases (unless they crawl your email receipts for that as well) — which Amazon is building on without all the other information. What you’d really want to do is to correlate the book buying and consumption information from the past with the behavioral data contemporary to it. With it all combined, perhaps you could filter recommendations so that the 20 or 50 you could show on line would have the commercial power of the hundreds or thousands you could see in the same amount of time in a store.

At the moment, both Amazon and Google are trying to see a pattern through one nearsighted eye.

But is this all really part of a larger problem for publishers? Is online discovery really affecting the sales patterns for books? It would appear so. One of the global ebook sellers told me during Frankfurt that their online sales are far more concentrated than publishers’ sales tended to be, with a tiny fraction of titles (under 5%) making up a huge percentage of total sales (nearly 70%). (I am assuming here that this retailer’s data is typical; of course, it may not be.) If memory serves, at the turn of the century Barnes & Noble stores saw only about 5% of their sales coming from “bestsellers” and, I believe (relying on memory of detail, which I admit is not my most powerful mental muscle) backlist outsold new titles. Publishers really live on the midlist. We know the long tail is taking an increasing share of sales and it would appear the head is too. Those sales come out of the midlist. It is pretty hard to run a profitable publisher without a profitable midlist.

And that would suggest that the increasing concentration of sales, which is likely the result of our hobbled ability to present choices in the digital sales environment, is a problem that publishers will want to address.

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We got lucky with the speakers we booked for Publishers Launch Frankfurt


Branch Rickey, the fabled baseball executive who gave us racial integration, farm systems, and a host of great teams over fifty years, used to say “luck is the residue of design”. I’d like to think he was right, because we have really been lucky with our Frankfurt show for Publishers Launch, which we present in partnership with the Frankfurt Academy.

The first little lucky break was that we booked Charlie Redmayne to speak when he was CEO of Pottermore. Then earlier this summer he moved back to HarperCollins to become their UK CEO. And now his appearance at Publishers Launch Frankfurt will be his first public address since making the switch from the biggest author online play to running the UK operations for one of the industry giants.

We’d also had the idea that there were big online communities of readers that publishers could increasingly use for marketing. GoodReads had started out with the intention of being a gathering place to discuss books, but Wattpad and Scribd did not. Wattpad was a place for writers to expose their work and get critiqued by other writers; Scribd was a YouTube for documents, a place to put and find all manner of word-and-picture content online. But over time, both grew (as did GoodReads) to become large communities of word-interested people, perfect for book promotion. And when we booked them all a few months ago, both Wattpad and Scribd were well aware of the opportunity they afforded publishers.

But good luck has intervened in all three cases. GoodReads got bought by Amazon, validating (and complicating) their position as a leading gathering place for book readers. Wattpad has done a few promotional tie-ups, but a deal they did with the innovative publisher Sourcebooks that includes a line of co-published YA books and ebooks got a lot of attention. And Scribd just last week announced a new ebook subscription service, with the opening coup of landing a large number of backlist titles from HarperCollins catching everybody’s attention.

Needless to say, all three of their leaders — Otis Chandler of GoodReads, Allen Lau of Wattpad, and Trip Adler of Scribd — will have a bit more to tell our audience than we had bargained on.

We signed up Jonathan Nowell, the CEO of Nielsen Book, to talk to us about markets in transition. Nielsen has a view through both book metadata and book sales data of how markets are behaving in many countries; we wanted Jonathan to give us some clues about where we might see what has happened in the US and UK in a non-English marketplace. In the meantime, Jonathan’s company made a little fresh news too, buying the business intelligence units from Bowker in the US.

Of course, there’s a lot more at the show next Tuesday in Frankfurt. We’ll have Ken Brooks (now SVP for Global Supply Chain at McGraw-Hill) talking about how publishers should use data. We’ll have Russ Grandinetti of Amazon speaking about their view of markets in transition. Marcus Leaver of Quarto and Rebecca Smart of Osprey, two CEOs of extremely innovative global companies that are not Big Five sized, will talk about how they use being nimble and audience-focused to succeed. Micah Bowers, the CEO of Bluefire, will talk about what a DRM-free world would really be like. And Octavio Kulesz, an Argentine publisher/researcher who studies book markets in the developing world, will give us some insight into development that is quite different from what we’ve experienced in rich countries.

And we’re delighted to be hosting a panel of German publishing players about the transition in that market, which might become the first outside the English-speaking world to show real signs of disruption. It appears that this topic hasn’t even gotten as much discussion in Germany as we think it should; we’re delighted to be hosting a conversation that should be of great local interest far from where we live.

Our Frankfurt conference runs next Tuesday from 8 to 2, ending early to allow our attendees to make other meetings on what is always a busy book fair schedule.

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Future systems needs for publishers to manage marketing becoming clear


From talking to people about insights gained about digital marketing from Pete McCarthy and learning new things both by having the conversations and then ruminating about them. it has recently become obvious that as people learn Pete’s lessons, they’re going to encounter a new problem they don’t have a solution for. This must already be apparent in some quarters. (Actually, if it’s not, it shows your digital marketing efforts are probably in need of improvement.)

A core tenet of Pete’s approach is that you define the audiences for your book (and one big jump is to get from “topics” in the book to “audiences” for the book) and then you use a variety of tools to find out what words these audiences use when they’re searching, where they hang out, how they get recommendations, and what else they like, believe in, and do. All this is done with the objective of aligning marketing efforts with true consumer intent and behavior.

Once you have defined the audiences and found the right terminologies, places, and times, the next question is which terms work best to drive engagement, and then sales. You often find that out by doing some experimenting: finding ways to market to the audiences (a Facebook interest, a Twitter hashtag) and testing the different words (and sometimes imagery) you think will resonate with them. This is classic A/B testing.

So if you have, as you might for many books, five audiences and six search terms under each, you could have 30 different “experiments” to conduct for that book from just your initial research. That’s a lot of A/B testing to keep track of.

One very quickly realizes that a major publisher using this approach should have tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of experiments taking place simultaneously.

This ties into another point Pete has made to me and which will be the subject of the final panel at our Marketing Conference on September 26. You can know whether digital marketing is “working” or not. “Working” means “positive ROI”: you spend a dollar on the marketing effort and you get more than a dollar back. As long as that is true, you keep doing it. If it isn’t true, you (probably) stop.

In other words, the old practice of setting a “budget” for a book’s marketing effort is an anachronism in the digital world. (That’s the main topic of that wrap-up panel.)

This idea also recalls a concept that was the topic of a post here three years ago: that marketing spending should be seen as “investment” because what is learned or gained in the way of customer attention helps the marketing efforts of the future.

I spoke with a big house CEO in the UK last week about this and he wholeheartedly agreed that the need I identified was a pain point. But, he said, at this point the experiments in his shop, and he believes in competitors’ shops as well, are not even being systematically measured for ROI.

While it is a tall order, the benefits of doing this — making all marketing spend an “experiment” and measuring its ROI — are too great to ignore and the alternative is choosing to guess when the answers are out there to be gotten.

This leaves a big gap between the marketing that is actually possible today given our ability to learn about audiences and search terms and social media engagement on one hand and what publishers can practically do across their lists on the other. That is, we’ve learned about some things that can really work, but which are devilishly difficult to scale.

The number of experiments taking place in most houses should likely exceed the number of active titles in the marketplace. Some of these might be no- or very low-cost. You can learn a lot buying $50 worth of keyword exposure in Facebook. But if you don’t continue it (or even increase it) if it is working (or turn it off it isn’t), then you don’t gain the benefits you should and possibly a good practice can turn into a disaster.

Once publishers more broadly learn and understand the marketing techniques Pete has developed (many of which will be explained at the Marketing Conference), they’ll discover the need for the next tool: a way to automate the management of these techniques on a broad scale. They’ll want technology that measures whether something is working and turns it off or continues or even extends it based on ROI. (Indeed, before they can do that they’ll need to develop their own “attribution” model that ties marketing spend to results and then to profit; it is not as simple as direct online conversions, though that is the logical place to begin.) They’ll want exception reporting that bubbles up what humans need to look at on a regular basis.

This is a complex technology problem. If it is seen as primarily an IT requirement, publishers might be reluctant to fund a solution. If it is seen as essential for marketing, it might be looked at differently. This is a dichotomy Pete put his finger on, which he calls the awkward dance between marketing and IT.

Right now, the chances are good that most houses aren’t doing enough research (into audiences and search terms) or enough experimenting. The research doesn’t pay off if you don’t use it, and the use doesn’t pay off if you don’t measure and manage it. (Or as Pete says, and will say at the conference, “rinse and repeat”.)

A lot of this is common practice outside the publishing industry and many “marketing automation solutions” do exist, some of which have been adopted by some houses for some specific uses. The trick is to find the tool that fits the need; like a pair of pants, it has to fit. And with the sheer number of small and diverse experiments required for publishing — so many ISBNs and so many retailers and so many marketing venues — the right comprehensive tool hasn’t been created yet.

I wonder if any of the established systems providers or start-ups looking to help publishers are working on this problem. If the formula for success is “see a need and fill it”, it might be a good idea. As publishers develop their competence at digital marketing, the need will be very apparent.

Also on September 26 and in the same midtown Manhattan venue as our Marketing Conference, Publishers Launch Conferences (in conjunction with our partners for this event, Digital Book World) will be presenting a Publishing Services Expo. The Expo consists of three mini-conferences designed to help publishers figure out how best to get help from service providers in three distinct areas: 1) Editorial/Production, 2) Rights and Royalties, and 3) Digital Asset Distribution. The Services Expo is priced low to make it affordable for attendees who want only one or two of the three tracks. Ticket-holders for the Marketing Conference are also allowed access to the Services show for anybody who wants to duck out for a particular piece of it.

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Marketing will replace editorial as the driving force behind publishing houses


One of the things my father, Leonard Shatzkin, taught me when I was first learning about book publishing a half-century ago was that “all publishing houses are started with an editorial inspiration”. What he meant by that is that what motivated somebody to start a book publisher was an idea about what to publish. That might be somebody who just believed in their own taste; it might be something like Bennett Cerf’s idea of a “Modern Library” of compendia organized by author; it might even be Sir Allen Lane’s insight that the public wanted cheaper paperback books. But Dad’s point was that publishing entrepreneurs were motivated by the ideas for books, not by a better idea for production efficiency or marketing or sales innovation.

In fact, those other functions were just requirements to enable somebody to pursue their vision or their passion and their fortune through their judgment about what content or presentation form would gain commercial success.

My father’s seminal insight was that sales coverage really mattered. When he recommended, on the basis of careful analysis of the sales attributable to rep efforts, that Doubleday build a 35-rep force in 1955, publishers normally had fewer than a dozen “men” (as they were, and were called, back then) in the field. The quantum leap in relative sales coverage that Doubleday gained by such a dramatic sales force expansion established them as a power in publishing for decades to come.

Over the first couple of decades of my time in the business — the 1960s and 1970s — the sales department grew in importance and influence. It became clear that the tools for the sales department — primarily the catalog, the book’s jacket, and a summary of sales points and endorsements that might be on a “title information sheet” that the sales reps used — were critical factors in a book’s success.

There was only very rarely a “marketing” department back then. There was a “publicity” function, aimed primarily at getting book reviews. There was often a “sales promotion” function, which prepared materials for sales reps, like catalogs. There might be an art department, which did the jackets. And there was probably an “advertising manager”, responsible for the very limited advertising budget spent by the house. Management of coop advertising, the ads usually placed locally by retail accounts that were partly supported by the publishers, was another function managed differently in different houses.

But the idea that all of this, and more, might be pulled together as something called “marketing” — which, depending on one’s point of view, was either also in charge of sales or alternatively, viewed as a function that existed in support of sales — didn’t really arise until the 1980s. Before that, the power of the editors was tempered a bit by the opinions and needs of the sales department, but marketing was a support function, not a driver.

In the past decade, things have really changed.

While it is probably still true that picking the “right books” is the single most critical set of decisions influencing the success of publishers, it is increasingly true that a house’s ability to get those books depends on their ability to market them. As the distribution network for print shrinks, the ebook distribution network tends to rely on pull at least as much as on push. The retailers of ebooks want every book they can get in their store — there is no “cost” of inventory like there is with physical — so the initiative to connect between publisher and retailer comes from both directions now. That means the large sales force as a differentiator in distribution clout is not nearly as powerful as it was. Being able to market books better is what a house increasingly finds itself compelled to claim it can do.

In the past, the large sales force and the core elements that they worked with — catalog, jacket, and consolidated and summarized title information — were how a house delivered sales to an author. Today the distinctions among houses on that basis are relatively trivial. But new techniques — managing the opportunities through social networks, using Google and other online ads, keeping books and authors optimized for search through the right metadata, expanding audiences through the analysis of the psychographics, demographics, and behavior of known fans and connections — are still evolving.

Not only are they not all “learned” yet, the environment in which digital marketing operates is still changing daily. What worked two years ago might not work now. What works now might not work a year from now. Facebook hardly mattered five years ago; Twitter hardly mattered two years ago. Pinterest matters for some books now but not for most. Publishers using their own proprietary databases of consumer names with ever-increasing knowledge of how to influence each individual in them are still rare but that will probably become a universal requirement.

So marketing has largely usurped the sales function. It will probably before long usurp the editorial function too.

Fifty years ago, editors just picked the books and the sales department had to sell them. Thirty years ago, editors picked the books, but checked in with the sales departments about what they thought about them first. Ten years from now, marketing departments (or the marketing “function”) will be telling editors that the audiences the house can touch need or want a book on this subject or filling that need. Osprey and some other vertical publishers are already anticipating this notion by making editorial decisions in consultation with their online audiences.

Publishing houses went from being editorially-driven in my father’s prime to sales-driven in mine. Those that didn’t make that transition, expanding their sales forces and learning to reach more accounts with their books than their competitors, fell by the wayside. The new transition is to being marketing-driven. Those that develop marketing excellence will be the survivors as book publishing transitions more fully into the digital age.

A very smart and purposeful young woman named Iris Blasi, then a recently-minted Princeton graduate, worked for me for a few years a decade ago. She left because she wanted to be an editor and she had a couple of stops doing that, briefly at Random House and then working for a friend named Philip Turner in an editorial division at Sterling. From there Iris developed digital marketing chops working for Hilsinger-Mendelson and Open Road. She’s just taken a job at Pegasus Books, a small publisher in Manhattan, heading up marketing but doubling as an acquiring editor. I think many publishers will come to see the benefits of marketing-led acquisition in the years to come. Congratulations to Pegasus and Iris for breaking ground where I think many will follow.

Many of the topics touched on in the post will be covered at the Marketing Conference on September 26, a co-production of Publishers Launch Conferences and Digital Book World, with the help and guidance of former Penguin and Random House digital marketer Peter McCarthy. We’ve got two bang-up panels to close with — one on the new requirement of collaboration between editorial and marketing within a house and then in turn between the house and the author, and the other on how digital marketing changes how we must view and manage staff time allocations, timing, and budgeting. These panels will frame conversations that will continue in this industry for a very long time to come as the transition this post sketches out becomes tangible.

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7 starter principles for digital book marketing learned from Peter McCarthy


Times are changing in publishing and publishers know it. Almost every publisher recognizes that their value to authors, and therefore their future, is dependent on their ability to deliver effective marketing at scale. In this day and age, that means digital marketing, which also has the characteristic of being “data-driven” marketing. And not only is that a science that is really less than 10 years old, it is changing all the time. Ten years ago many of the most important components of digital marketing for books today — Twitter, Facebook, Goodreads — barely existed or hadn’t been born yet. They certainly didn’t matter.

Publishers can’t address their digital marketing challenge by simply spending more because the choices in digital marketing are endless. They have to be smart about what they do. Which means they have to be smart about something for which there is little established wisdom and no deep experience inside of publishing houses.

For a large part of the past year, I have been learning about digital marketing for books from the man whom I will regard as The Master until the day comes when I meet somebody who knows more. He’s Peter McCarthy. Pete started his career with nearly 3 years at The Reader’s Catalog, New York Review of Books, and the Granta family of publications. Reader’s Catalog formed part of the backbone of Bn.com 1.0. Then Pete spent six years at Penguin in the early digital days helping them build a DAM system and put out ebooks for the first time, followed by six years at Random House pioneering their digital marketing efforts.

Pete has made the point repeatedly that much of what he knows, does, and is teaching me is already well understood in the modern world of branding and marketing. The distinctions among psychographics, demographics, and behavior, and their importance in marketing, were new to me but are familiar stuff to people who sell Pepsi or Toyotas. Pete’s really invented something in publishing by looking for comparable products that aren’t other books, but outside publishing they know all about seeking comps that aren’t precisely the same as their own product. The techniques Pete employs to find audiences in people that are like the known audiences for a book are standard tools in consumer marketing outside publishing.

But that doesn’t mean publishers can just hire big digital agencies to help them. It won’t work. Because while publishing can use techniques that sophisticated marketers are using to sell other products in other places, the truly more complex world of books will be hard for them to cope with. And marketing budgets for a title that are rarely five figures, often three figures, and sometimes less than that don’t fit the best agencies’ idea of “workable”, either.

The big agencies would actually have no clue how to deal with thousands of highly differentiated products at the same time, which have some interconnectedness to them (because they’re all books, so Amazon author pages have to be optimized for all of them, for example) but mostly are unrelated. And not knowing that causes lost value two ways:

1. They don’t have techniques to apply mass optimization across hundreds or thousands of highly differentiated “products”, because the work they do doesn’t require it;

2. They don’t have the capacity big publishers need to run hundreds (or maybe even thousands) of campaigns at one time with realtime “budgets” (or “go, no-go” gauges).

So the big agencies wouldn’t know how to deal with a publishing house. The granularity would frustrate them and they’d freight each ISBN (publishing speak for “SKU”) with too much overhead.

That has left most publishers on their own, with service providers delivering some by-title assistance (you can hire somebody to do an author’s tweeting for them), but with the publishers themselves left to sort out how to make maximum use of a book or author’s digital footprint and social media presence to drive sales. And it is not really surprising that Pete McCarthy, having had the opportunity to meet the marketing challenge across thousands of titles and authors and hundreds of genres, topics, and imprints, would have figured out a lot of things that elude the publishers who aren’t digital marketing sophisticates and the digital marketing experts who rarely, if ever, encounter the granularity and product diversity that characterizes book publishing.

I’ve learned a lot from Pete, but I’ll never catch up to him and I won’t even try. He uses more than 100 different digital tools to help him understand followers in various social platforms and who they are. He is using a marketer’s understanding of each individual’s demographics, psychographics, and behavior (and behavior’s subset, intent), to define the groups of people he sees clustering. That, in turn, helps him find groups of people who are similar to the ones who already like the author or the book.

Pete has articulated many principles which make a lot of sense, even to somebody who didn’t know about demographics and psychographics and who has not worked his way through even a handful of “listening” tools, let alone a hundred or more.

1. The digital marketing menu contains nearly an infinite number of items. That results in a tremendous amount of wasted effort spent trying things that a little research would have indicated will never work.

2. The key to making sales is to put the right message in front of the right person at the right time. Research finds the right people; testing finds the right message and the right time.

3. The various tool sets will allow you to profile the “followers” of a book or author in Facebook, Twitter, or LinkedIn (or by securing an email address) and it will enable you to understand for each of them what kind of following they have. This is critical research to do before you invest effort and time in actual marketing.

4. Another key research element is to carefully pick your nomenclature. Tools can also tell you how common various words and terms are in searches made through Google, Amazon, and other venues. This informs the best choices for metadata tagging, of course, but it could also affect a book’s titling.

Understanding the book and author’s digital connections and the right language to describe the book you’re selling are “foundational” elements; everything flows from them.

5. The whole concept of marketing “budgeting” needs to be rethought. While the trap or danger in digital marketing is its infinite number of possibilities, the opportunity is that the results of efforts are visible and measurable. So everything that is tried should be measured and evaluated, continued it if is working and either altered or terminated if it is not.

This reality collides with the historical practices and commercial realities of publishers, particularly big publishers. Editors, who have to sign up the books and keep agents and authors happy, want to tell agents and authors what their marketing budgets and efforts will be. Whether the book is selling or not, agents and authors don’t want to hear that the marketing spending was cancelled because the efforts weren’t adding value. But a house can’t just add to the budget when something is working and not cancel anything that is not, or they’ll go broke.

6. The whole concept of “time” also needs to be rethought, both “time on the clock” (work people do) and “time on the calendar” — not just how long programs run (as above) but also when they take place in relation to the lifecycle of the book. In the digital era, whether books are well-represented in stores at any moment is not necessarily the key determinant of how well they’ll sell, so pushing a backlist book that might be thinly distributed but which is suddenly timely is perfectly sensible (“the calendar”). And it wasn’t that way five or ten years ago when marketing efforts wouldn’t be extended if books weren’t in the stores. It is also true that the external costs of digital marketing could be very low but a campaign could consume a lot of in-house time (“the clock”) with copy creation, design, and posting.

7. The key to successful digital marketing is to do the research that finds the right messages and targets, test the messages to the targets looking for a defined result, measure the impact, and then adjust the messaging and targeting. Pete calls that “rinse and repeat”. The objective is to find replicable actions that provide results with an ROI that can be continued until the ROI stops.

With Peter McCarthy’s help and in conjunction with Digital Book World, Cader’s and my Publishers Launch Conferences has organized a Modern Book Marketing Conference to lay out the core tenets of digital marketing for publishers. (So we can all learn from Pete McCarthy.) 

After Pete opens the day by introducing his basic approach, we’ll have a panel of top publishing strategists — Rick Joyce of Perseus, Angela Tribelli of HarperCollins, Matt Litts from the Smithsonian, and Jeff Dodes of St. Martin’s Press — talk about how they apply digital marketing in their companies. Then Murray Izenwasser of Biztegra, a top digital marketing company, will clarify the core principles of using consumer demographic, psychographic, and behavioral data before Susie Sizoler of Penguin covers how publishers can build powerful customer databases and reader insights. Marketers Matt Schwartz of Random House, Rachel Chou of Open Road Integrated Media, and Brad Thomas Parsons of Houghton Mifflin Harcourt will  talk about how they promote, including a “lightning round” of commentary about how and when to use the most important venues and tools: Amazon author pages, Twitter, Facebook, Goodreads, and many others.

We will have a round of speed-dating, so attendees can meet with key sponsors and expert speakers in small groups and get their individual questions answered. And we’ll conclude the day with Erica Curtis of Random House on best practices for measuring and analyzing your marketing ROI, and two panels. The first, on “how digital marketing changes budgeting and timing”, will feature case histories from Sourcebooks, Running Press, and at least one other publisher. The second on the new collaboration required among authors and marketers, will feature agent Laura Dail, outside marketer Penny Sansevieri, inside marketer Miriam Parker of Hachette, and an editor still to be selected.

This Marketing Conference is co-located with our Publishing Services Expo, which I described in a previous post, and attendees of the Marketing Conference are welcome to sit in on any part of PSE as well. At the breaks, sponsors and many of the speakers from both events will be available to the audiences for both events.

Full disclosure and a teaser “announcement”: Pete McCarthy and I are forming a digital marketing agency to apply his knowledge on behalf of publishers, authors, and agents. We’ll reveal more details, including our starter assignments, over the next few weeks.

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No book market looks like an English-speaking market yet; might Germany be next?


Although ebooks are seen as the symbol of “disruption” in the trade book marketplace, they’re really just a part of it and they’re the trailing component, not the leading edge. Online sales of print books were making life more challenging for booksellers in the US even before the Kindle debuted in late 2007. And it is the combination of the two — online purchasing of print and the penetration of ebooks among readers — that produces the disruptive effect: shifting the sales of books away from brick-and-mortar stores.

The disruption is evident among booksellers because they, and the shelf space they control, disappear. The disruption is evident among publishers because they are relatively suddenly confronted with a breakdown of the established order: their time-honored techniques for marketing and sales don’t function like they always did. They can’t find shelves on which to put the requisite number of books. They are obliged to find new ways to reach consumers with the message that their books are available because the old promotional avenues, including bookstores shelves, are drying up. Scale doesn’t help them like it used to.

And the disrupted marketplace creates another headache for publishers (and, in some ways, for booksellers too) by presenting authors with ways to reach book buyers without an organization, without much investment, without inventory. This makes old authors harder to sign and encourages thousands of new ones to put competing products into the marketplace. Recent Bowker data suggested that 12% of ebook sales are for titles that were self-published. (And most of those would be essentially unavailable for store sales.)

The marketplace disruption and the roiling of the publishing community is familiar ground in the English-speaking world. In the US and UK, ebooks quite often constitute half or more of the sales of a book. Bookstore chains have closed. Independents (despite some anecdotal reports of success, perhaps — in the US — facilitated by Borders’s disappearance) are threatened. Self-publishing has so many successes that, in the aggregate, it constitutes a new “major” player.

But the disruption, so far, has been confined to English-language publishing. In no other market are publishers and booksellers so obviously questioning the basics of their business models or speculating so openly about whether the publishing business we have known for a century can survive in its present form for another decade.

We keep scanning the horizon looking for the first market that will be disrupted in a similar way. We think we’ve found it. That market is Germany.

Recent reporting put the share for ebooks in Germany in the range of 2-3% of total sales. (This was the top line number reported to us by several people we spoke to; it is the definitely the prevailing understanding. A closer reading of the report, however — hard for us because we don’t know German — gets at some of the larger numbers we found through our investigation.) Nonetheless, we thought a closer examination of what’s going on there might show the potential for disruption. So we decided to put together a panel from the German trade to discuss the question at our Publishers Launch Conference at the Frankfurt Book Fair.

We looked for a real cross-section of knowledge across the German book trade, and I think our panel delivers it.

Steffen Meier is the head of “Online Publishing” (ebooks and ecommerce) at Verlag Eugen Ulmer, a specialist publisher focused on agriculture, horticulture and gardening. In that role he addresses both professional and consumer markets. He is also the spokesman for AKEP, the working group on electronic publishing for the Borsenverein, the German publishing trade association (which, unlike their counterparts in the US and UK, includes publishers and booksellers).

Ronald Schild is the CEO of MVB GmbH, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Borsenverein which provides marketing and publishing products and services that support the book trade. Schild also launched the ebook platform Libreka and formerly worked at Amazon.

Tobias Schmid is the head of ebooks and ecommerce at Osianderesche Buchhandlung, the 8th largest bookstore chain in Germany (and one that dates is founding to 1596!) Osiander operates 30 bookstores in southwest Germany and is the 2nd largest family-owned chain in the country. He is running an ebook program that has been in place since 2009 with over 700,000 titles available.

Anne Stirnweis is the ebooks project manager for Random House Germany and has been in that role since 2011, overseeing the development and expansion of their ebook program. Anne formerly worked at Amazon in content acquisition and vendor management.

In Germany, unlike the US or UK, there are price maintenance laws for books. They help protect bookstores by making it impossible for Amazon, or any other online or store retailer, to accelerate the disruption with heavy discounting. But, as we recruited our German panel, we have discovered that there are signs that the disruption that seemed inevitable to us is starting to take hold.

Among the things we learned recruiting panelists for the Frankfurt session:

Although the overall percentage of ebook sales in the German trade is only 2-3% of the total, on many titles they are reaching 10%, or even 20%, of the total. (This squares with the subsidiary findings of the report, which has German publishers reporting ebook sales percentages closer to 10% than to 2%.)

Free-standing independent stores are feeling the pain and closing, although in some cases their locations are being taken over by regional chains with superior capabilities to compete in the online environment.

Amazon is growing like a weed and is the dominant online bookseller, despite their inability to use price as a club in the competition. One observer told us that Amazon is about 2/3 of the online book sales marketplace. That’s not as much as they have in the US and UK, but let’s remember they’re playing without their pricing weapon.

Online purchasing is efficiency-competitive with shop purchasing because the inventory in shops is thin and many of the sales they make are for “next day” pickup after the store has gotten the book from a wholesaler.

And a fact we’ve learned that made us gasp is that many estimate the sales of print online to now constitute 25% of the total German market. This was also hinted at in a Borsenverein report, but it didn’t seem to strike many of the local players we talked to with the same impact with which it hit us.

Just as overall digital sales are 2-3% but they peak at 5 or 10 times that for some titles, the 25% online purchase of print is also unevenly distributed. So it is likely that there are a lot of titles in the German market now for which half or more of the sales are taking place outside of the shops.

So it would seem that all the ingredients for disruption are firmly in place. Most of the market can be reached without inventory, a warehouse, or sales reps. Amazon has enough of the market so that its author services that enable publication from a Word file constitute a viable commercial proposition for an author. The shops are feeling pressure, not finding that decentralized ecommerce or ebook solutions are particularly effective, and — even with price protection — steadily losing market share. And publishers can’t possibly ignore the changing marketplace. They’re already finding fewer places to put books on sale. Publishers that haven’t yet felt resistance from authors who have new alternatives to reach readers surely will before long.

It would be silly to predict a US- or UK-like course for Germany. There are two big restraining forces that weren’t present when the US and UK were undergoing their transition. One is, as we’ve said, that the publishers have the price-setting power in Germany and they are keeping both print and ebook prices high. (It is true, however, that average ebook prices are being pulled down by self-publishing in the ebook market.) The other is that they’re coming along a bit later, when tablets are cheaper and not much more expensive than dedicated ereaders (when Kindle launched, there were no tablets) and — related — when video, including popular movies and TV shows, are ubiquitously available to compete with ebooks. Nonetheless, the forces of digital change are powerful and increasingly taking hold.

In the course of putting together this panel, we found many participants in the German book trade who found the threat to bookstores and the established order an uncomfortable subject for public discussion. (It was absolutely startling to read in that 16% of German publishers have no plans to deliver ebooks.) Regardless of how uncomfortable it is, I suspect this is a discussion that will be very robust in Germany in the months to come.

There will be further insights into Germany’s digital transition from presentations at PLC Frankfurt from Jonathan Nowell of Nielsen and Russ Grandinetti of Amazon. And we are also featuring presentations from GoodReads, Scribd, and Wattpad — three virtual gathering places for the online reading and writing communities which, because they are emphasizing their global presences, are likely to tell us more about Germany too.

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Taking book marketing where the book readers are likely to be


Digital marketers who want to sell books are increasingly turning to the virtual places where readers cluster. This includes marketing through the major social networks (Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest, etc.), using the data mining tools available to target within those networks, as well as marketing in niches and online communities of readers (in some cases publishers are even building vertical communities themselves). Publishers are also increasingly turning to book- and reading-focused social sites to get the word out about their books. These vehicles carry an additional bonus in the digital age: they’re global and give publishers a one-stop opportunity to reach markets beyond their natural national audiences.

Goodreads, recently acquired by Amazon, has built a network of book-oriented conversation. Now with 19 million members, they have been for the past few years trying to show publishers how to use the platform as a marketing tool. This was, of course, their original reason for being. They have overtly built a site around books and conversation about books. Since the book business routinely deals in “comps” — books that are like the book I’m trying to sell you — Goodreads has a firm foundation from which to sell publishers marketing services. They’ve been doing that for some time.

What is not clear is whether that business will be reined in by their new corporate owners in any way. Amazon’s prior history doesn’t demonstrate great interest in marketing that isn’t Amazon-centric. And we know that big publishers are generically nervous about Amazon and not inclined to spend any more promotional money than an already aggressive large account with lots of coop buckets already squeezes out of them.

Whatever the extent to which Goodreads maintains its mission as a marketing vehicle for publishers to reach book audiences regardless of where they shop (and, as of this writing, the B&N link is actually above the Amazon link in their drop-down menu of “online stores”), publishers are bound to be looking for alternatives to work with as well. We think we see two of them emerging, although neither of them started out in life aimed at being a marketer of books available to publishers.

Wattpad is a Canada-based startup that is a reading and writing community. It preceded Penguin’s “Book Country” , started with social reading of public domain titles, and doesn’t have Book Country’s overtly commercial focus, nor its stated emphasis on genre fiction (although, perhaps inevitably, Wattpad’s strongest areas are YA, paranormal, romance, and fantasy), but the sites are similar in that they give aspiring writers the opportunity to have their work commented upon by a community of other aspiring writers. Wattpad has grown to over 10 million users. And it is a very active and engaged community. They publish stats suggesting that that users spend an extraordinary amount of time on their site, something like half-an-hour, twice-a day. And they have attracted such luminaries as Margaret Atwood to post content on the site.

There are already several examples of aspiring authors who have published on Wattpad, built audiences, developed their stories, and gotten a book deal including Beth ReeksAbigail Gibbs, and Brittany Geragotelis. And PW just did a piece on up-and-comer Nikki Kelly.

With its large number of highly-engaged readers and a track record of being successful promoters for undiscovered talent, Wattpad has recently started to call attention to the opportunity for publishers to market to its audience. It is now encouraging publishers to connect with its audience by posting teaser or attention-getting content in advance of the launch of a book. Random House, Scholastic, and Macmillan (for Amanda Hocking) have already taken advantage of this.

A similar opportunity is now also being seen by Scribd. Scribd is a repository of documents. It is often used as a “convenience”: a place to post court decisions or company reports or anything somebody wants to make accessible to a broad audience. In its early days, Scribd was seen as a pirate-enabler, but it has aggressively worked with publishers to make sure unauthorized copyrighted content is taken down. Meanwhile, it has built a vast treasure-trove of documents from 200 countries in 70 languages and is getting 10 million unique visitors a month.

That’s a lot of people looking at a lot of documents, giving Scribd a lot of knowledge about who they are and what else they might like to read.

Our view is that the marketing opportunities through all three of these companies should be understood by publishers. It is early days for all three of them, really, but as marketing entities Wattpad and Scribd are really just getting started. Some things have been “proven” to work at Goodreads, but, really, all three of them are like jungles still being hacked through with superhighway travel still in the forseeable future, but not around the corner.

There’s quite a bit of marketing activity by US-based publishers on Goodreads; it’s beginning to happen on Wattpad and it is a gleam in the eye at Scribd. But they all have big numbers of readers paying attention to their site and they’re all looking for ways to make themselves more valuable. It looks like Wattpad and Scribd are seeing the possibility that marketing for publishers could be a very significant revenue-generator, if not their principal one. (Goodreads started out with that hope.)

Painful aspects of the digital transition — the diminution of bookstore shelf space and the reduction of room for book marketing in the established press — are just beginning to bite in markets outside the English-speaking world. With all three of these communities teeming with non-English-speaking members, they all become tools publishers around the world will need to know about.

And that’s why we have them all speaking at our Publishers Launch Conference at Frankfurt, focused on what meaningful marketing reach they can offer to publishers outside the US. As conference programmers, we look for those win-win situations where what the presenter wants the audience to know is information they will find immediately useful. For our Frankfurt conference audience, which last year had c-level executives from 25 countries, this would appear to be a bull’s-eye.

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An innocent story with dramatic implications


It’s a holiday weekend in America, but they’re working in the UK. A story posted by The Bookseller today really caught my eye.

It says that Hachette UK is seeing “nearly half” of its sales taking place online. The report, built around data provided in an annual letter by CEO Tim Hely Hutchinson to authors, reports that ebook sales are about 25% of Hachette’s sales. That implies that a third of the print sales (another 25% of the total) are taking place online.

Furthermore, Hutchinson reports that ebook sales for fiction are at 30%, with “some genres and authors” at over 50%! If you assume that the ratio of print sales online remains a third for those subsets, you calculate that for fiction overall online sales are about 53% and for some genres and authors they are close to two-thirds!

This is the first time I’ve seen (or noticed) a breakdown that is “online versus offline” rather than “digital versus print”. I’ve argued for sometime that online versus offline is the more meaningful distinction in sorting out the power equation between publishers and Amazon. (And that’s why we’ve got both Amazon and Nielsen talking about that very topic at our Publishers Launch Frankfurt conference.)

The chances are that Amazon has 80% or more of the online sales in the UK (NOOK, which takes approximately 20% of the ebook sales in the US, is much less powerful there.)

This is earthshaking. I am not sure enough people in our business are seeing it that way. Or maybe they don’t talk about it much because it’s scary and there’s not much they can do about it. I didn’t see the letter, just the report of it, but Hutchinson’s expressed concern was that the total value of print and digital sales is showing a tendency to decline over time. There was nothing in the article and appears to be nothing in the letter about the implications of the sales ratios it reveals, but start with two things:

1. Amazon can pay double the royalties of a publisher on ebooks without breaking a sweat and, frankly, can do the same on print books they sell themselves. Do the math. That means they can often sign an author and deliver as much revenue from just the sales they deliver themselves as a publisher does with the whole UK market.

2. If you were an intermediary delivering half of somebody’s sales — in any business — wouldn’t you demand a better deal than anybody else gets by a considerable amount?

I wouldn’t presume what the Hutchinson letter reveals is unique to Hachette. This is a powerful sign that the changes we’ve seen in the book business over the past few years are merely prologue.

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Promotional activities market to the Three Cs: creators, channels, consumers


Somebody in the office just asked for some help thinking through the distinction between marketing and sales. Our conditioned response on that distinction is that sales efforts are about managing the channel partners and marketing is what encourages end users to buy. But, of course, we rapidly recognized that formulation was never a clean one and is even less so in the digital age.

The conversation recalled for me what might be the best generic advice I ever gave during a consulting assignment that was not incorporated by the client (which no longer exists; a company that has since been sold and merged into another) nor, as far as I know, by anybody else in the business. I rarely, if ever, say this: but here’s a suggestion for a practice that every book publisher ought to implement and none has.

The assignment at the time — probably around 2006 or 2007 — was to examine the marketing activities of this publisher and shed light on how they should be rethought in the emerging digital age. To do that, we did our best to measure the impact of the marketing spending that was taking place. And, to do that, we looked at sales at retail as best we could discern them — through BookScan and through POS reports from retailers — for the weeks prior and the weeks following advertising and promotional activities to look for discernible “lift”.

It was a sobering exercise. What was really shocking was the lack of sustained benefit from the coop marketing activities with retailers. We often found there was some lift during a promotion, but hardly ever was there any sales benefit sustained after a promotion.

One thing that arose in that discussion was that a very big wad of spending was for ads in the NY Times Book Review. They hardly moved the consumer needle at all. When we probed internally, we found that the marketers knew that would be the case, but those ads weren’t placed primarily to sell books. They were placed to sell authors on publishing with the house. So I gave them the advice that everybody should follow and nobody does.

“Call it what it is,” I said. If the spending isn’t meant to drive sales, but rather to recruit authors, call it “editorial”, not “marketing”. Don’t make the marketing people responsible for having it deliver sales results; make the editorial team responsible for having it deliver better authors or better author deals.

The advice to “call it what it is” is sound, but actually spotlights how the distinction between “marketing” and “sales” is getting harder to define these days. In fact, “editorial” is part of the same mix now too. One of the generic challenges of our time is how to integrate a publisher’s (largely digital) marketing efforts with an author’s (almost entirely digital) marketing efforts and online presence.

Here is perhaps a clearer way to think about it. We have “promotional activity” that ranges from base functions like metadata provision; through old-style stuff we still do like book-by-book pre-pub promo copy (might not call it “catalog copy” anymore), press releases, advance reading copies in various forms, and author tours; on to relatively new activities like buying keywords and banner ads, blog tours, “content marketing”, and growing and using customer lists.

The categories of target are the Three Cs: creators, channels, and consumers. All need to be satisfied with the promotional activities, which are the marketing efforts. The first group — the creators — should be interested in and pleased by what they see being done to influence the channels and consumers. In fact, that’s why the NY Times ads were important to them. They believed those ads helped them sell books. (Of course, Times ads also impress the authors’ friends and relatives.) And although the evidence in the consulting assignment we did was that they did little to move the consumers, it is possible, even likely, that those ads (if used correctly) did influence the channels.

There’s another way publishers need to change their thinking around marketing, and that also will require some “adjustment” of author expectations. In the pre-digital age, the primary purpose of marketing for most titles was to help the sales force get the requisite number of copies in place at retail for a Big Bang on publication date. That meant that the largest and most persuasive possible plan needed to be thoroughly articulated before reps hit the stores, and that would be some months before the books would be available.

That approach may still make the most sense to be persuasive to the creators and the channels, but it is not the right way to approach consumer marketing anymore. As Peter McCarthy, the champion digital marketer who is helping us organize our PLC/DBW Marketing Conference has explained to me, it can be a tough selling job to convince an agent that a sustained digital effort, course-corrected as it goes, will be as valuable in driving sales as a big ad in a recognized vehicle that costs several times as much would be. Is the publisher doing the right thing or just trying to save money? You can excuse an author or agent for considering that possibility.

And this raises another way publishing practice is going to have to change in the digital age. If marketing efforts become less about an initial burst of activity to get big inventory placements and “orbital velocity” right after publication date and more about systematically building on what is proven to work as the book lives in the marketplace, then budgeting is going to have to change even more dramatically than the suggestion I made to the client would require.

What is the right amount to spend on a book becomes clear only as you do the spending, read the results, and respond to them. Some things will work so well that they are essentially self-liquidating; they become marketing investments that rapidly pay for themselves. In those circumstances, whatever the budget says, you’d be unwise to terminate them as long as that remained the case. Similarly, you may discover things in marketing Title A, new this year, that tells you something that might work effectively for Titles J, T, and X, which were published in the near or distant past. J, T, and X don’t have marketing budgets in most of today’s publishing environments.

And digital marketing efforts often make the most sense when they support a range of titles. After all, since a big part of the cost is finding the “right” audience and how to reach them, once you’ve done that, you’d want to benefit across the range of an author’s output or across several topical titles that have the same audience. That’s not the way publishers have historically budgeted their marketing dollars.

In McCarthy’s view, marketing breaks into three big buckets: B2B, B2C known, and B2C unknown. In the paradigm of my Three Cs, creators and channels are B2B and the consumers are the known (a publisher’s own database of consumers, for example) and unknown (buying a Facebook ad). But, however you frame it, old thinking must yield to new; old distinctions between marketing and sales will be increasingly irrelevant; and budgeting for marketing needs to be completely rethought.

The modern marketing challenge returns us to what we consider the core themes of “scale” and “vertical” and reminds us, again, that marketing one title at a time according to the old-fashioned playbook is not a winning strategy in the future.

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Anybody Press is the new member of the Big Six (for ebooks, at least)


Bowker reported last week that 12% of the ebooks being bought now are self-published. There was skepticism about the methodology from The Digital Reader and Good e-Reader says Bowker’s data should be taken “with a grain of salt”. But the exact number doesn’t matter; the trend does. The share of the consumer ebook dollar going to books that aren’t coming from publishing entities means that the new Big Six for ebooks are the ones we know well — Penguin Random House and the four (HarperCollins, Hachette, Simon & Schuster, and Macmillan) that among them add up to about their size — plus Anybody Press.

And Anybody Press is almost certainly growing faster in ebook sales than any of the other Big Six.

This is happening almost solely with individual authors and still mostly with authors who are not in demand by the commercial publishers. Although it does happen that authors turn down their next deal to self- or unconventionally-publish (which publishing with an Amazon imprint, even under advance-against-royalty terms, still is because there’s to date no effective retail distribution), it’s still rare for that to happen.

The self-publishing or Amazon-publishing route still requires pretty much giving up on bookstore or other retail distribution. (Or so it has seemed. The news that Amazon has sold a million of “The Hangman’s Daughter”, an unknown number through the paperback licensed to Houghton Harcourt, may be contradicting that notion. Except we don’t know how many Houghton Harcourt has sold.) But the ebook royalties are higher, so it is a balance that deserves, and gets, constant review by agents and authors as the share of sales through bookstore or other retail distribution continues to decline.

If I were the business development manager for Anybody Press (and, on some consulting projects we are working on, I am) I would see lots of target markets for growth. I’d encourage my targets to keep doing the calculation of what the sales times royalty rate is for the “bought online” portion of the market versus what the sales times royalty rate is for a conventional deal that gets you the “whole” market. As the “bought online” share grows, more and more genres and authors will find that giving up the retail sale in favor of a bigger share of the revenue per sale online is to their financial benefit.

And the way things are developing — “Hangman’s Daughter” aside — you might not have to give up the store sale forever.

The “Wool” deal, where Hugh Howey sold only print rights to Simon & Schuster, hasn’t really been replicated yet for anything else that big, but it will be. (Successful indie authors John Locke and Bella Andre have done different versions of the same trick.) Royalty rates on ebooks from big publishers are bound to go up (while royalty rates for print books will probably go down). These will change the details of the calculations as they transpire.

Another way to make the jump from purely online sales to a publication strategy that includes print in stores is to use print-on-demand technology from Ingram’s Lightning Source. That’s how Open Road, which began life as an opportunistic ebook-only publisher, has chosen to manage print beyond Amazon. As has Byliner. (You can always deliver print with Amazon by working through their CreateSpace capability.) Now, that’s not the same as being published with an advance sale in the stores on pub date, but it does mean that if somebody walks into a Barnes & Noble or an indie bookstores and asks for your book, they’ll be able to order it for delivery in a day or two.

So aside from the market share fight big publishers will have with each other, there’s going to be a continuing market share fight between Anybody Press and the commercial industry. And for some time to come, Anybody Press is going to be winning. The question, like the question about online (and Amazon) market share growth is: where does it stop?

Big publishers do have ways to fight back. Putting together our upcoming (September 26) Marketing Conference with Peter McCarthy, who used to plot digital marketing strategy for Random House, I’m learning what can be accomplished when scaled technology and expertise are employed by engaged title-and-audience knowledge. And, particularly viewed in a global context and aside from straight narrative books, the print-at-retail component has a long way to go before it becomes irrelevant. But when I say that, I mean “many years”, not “many decades”.

This amorphous but growing competition is the “atomization” concept I wrote about recently in action. It can’t be neglected in the consideration of any branch of publishing’s future. In fact, indie entities, which is the way I think about atomization, are more likely to be disruptive on a larger scale than indie authors have been so far. So we might have Any Organization Press growing even faster in the next few years than Anybody Press has for the past few.

What people spend for books won’t necessarily shrink drastically, but where the money goes will shift drastically. The challenge for today’s leading revenue producers will be to find the ways their business models can adapt to the shift.

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