The Shatzkin Files


DBW lets us look at ebook bestsellers by price, and things are revealed


Digital Book World unveiled its new ebook bestseller lists this morning. They put this effort together — I program the annual January conference for them; this work has almost nothing to do with me (although I’m over-generously credited with having provided “guidance”) — over the past couple of months working with Dan Lubart. Lubart owns Iobyte, which had been tracking ebook sales and rankings for over a year before he took a job at HarperCollins late in 2011.

It occurred to me a long time ago that ebook bestseller lists had a core flaw. Because many print book lists were sorted by format (hardcover, trade paperback, mass-market paperback) — USA Today’s is an exception — they were effectively “tiered” by price. But ebook pricing, famously a point of contention as publishers tried to maintain higher prices in the marketplace through agency agreements, varied widely and that variance was obfuscated in the lists.

So when four self-published authors land on the NY Times list, the stories saying so don’t even mention the big price advantage working at the back of two of them, whose books were 99 cents. All the more credit, of course, to Colleen Hoover, who scored with two books on the list priced at $7.99. She has since signed a contract with Simon & Schuster. (Bella Andre, who has books at $4.99 on the list, spoke for us at Digital Book World III last January.)

In the absence of prompt unit sales reporting by accounts, which doesn’t seem to be on the horizon any time soon, the only way timely lists of this kind can be assembled is with a certain amount of informed guesswork. (You can collect unit sales numbers through the publishers, but only with a very serious time lag.) The Lubart-DBW team can see the sales ranks of all these books on the various ebook vendor sites, but they have to take educated guesses about how to factor in the different rankings (power law curve; sales drop sharply as ranks drop) and different account sales power (number five on Amazon almost certainly sells more than number five anywhere else).

So nobody’s list can be above dispute.

DBW’s methods, which I have discussed with them and which Lubart lays out in a post, are objective and reasonable and constantly under review. So their lists deserve to be treated with respect and analyzing what they tell us is worth the effort.

First of all, there is a striking lack of self-published material represented. There is not one self-published ebook in the overall Top 25 and only two appear at all, both on the lowest price band (from zero to $2.99).

Secondly, there is a publisher I hadn’t heard of that shows up with two titles in the cheapest band and with one in the next one up ($3-$7.99). That’s “Entangled Publishing”, which has an interesting business model that Jane Litte talked about on her blog a couple of months ago. They’re also intriguing because one of their hits, a book called “The Marriage Bargain”, was on the Hollywood radar screen when I was out there talking to people two months ago. Now they know there’s a new publisher to watch.

The Top 25 break down by publisher this way: Random House 10, Penguin 5, Scholastic 3 (we know what those are), Simon & Schuster 2, Hachette 2, Macmillan 1, HarperCollins 1, Soho 1. (Soho is an independent New York-based publisher.)

But what is even more interesting to me, and which defies the notion that the big publishers aren’t aware of the value of lower pricing, is how the list breaks down in the lowest price tier (they list 10 titles): Random House 2, Self-published 2, Entangled 2, HarperCollins 2, Soho 1, Penguin 1.

Six of the top 10 titles under $3 belong to the Big Six.

The Big Six plus Scholastic have seven of the top 10 in the $3-$7.99 price band as well.

Above $8, only Kensington breaks the monopoly of the Big Six, with one title.

So it would appear that the notion that The Big Six are hurting authors by pricing their books too high is not borne out by this data.

It will be particularly interesting to watch how the lists change in the various price bands later this Fall if the DoJ settlement is approved and the retailers are free to set prices on the output of half of the Big Six.

************

Barnes & Noble announced today that they’re going into the UK with partners they will name later. This was a move the industry has been waiting for. The expectations that B&N would team with Waterstone’s were dashed by the surprise deal the British retailer announced with Amazon earlier in the summer.

This is a very important move by B&N. They absolutely have to get global to be a long-run competitor in ebooks, and Britain is certainly the logical place to start.

I see two big issues for them. The obvious one is that they probably won’t be partnering with a signficant book retailer since Waterstone’s has their Amazon partnership and WH Smiths is partnered with Kobo. So they might get a lot of consumer reach — through one of the supermarket chains, say — but the core book market won’t be instantly accessible.

The less obvious one is that dedicated ebook readers, which is where Nook is strongest, particularly with the Glow, are losing ground to a plethora of tablets, led by iPad, of course, which is rumored to have a new smaller version coming. There is a reasonable theory that the eink device has “peaked” and that multi-function tablets will be the point of entry to the ebook market for new consumers in the future.

In fact, that theory is one we’re discussing at our Pub Launch Frankfurt conference on October 8, as Peter Hildick-Smith applies his Codex Group research data to the question of how digital markets will shape up in countries beyond the US and the UK in the future. At the same event, B&N executives Jim Hilt and Theresa Horner will appear as well.

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  • Bob Mayer

    Actually there is a very important thing from the author’s point of view. Who is making the money? The self-published author is making 70% of that $4.99 book or $3.49. The traditionally published author at $4.99 is making $1.25 at 25% of cover price, minus the agent’s 15% which makes it$1.06. So a “poor” self-published author not on this list selling less than 1/3 of a “bestseller” is making the same as the bestseller.

    Which means, in essence, yes, traditional publishing is making money. Good for them. And they provide a very valuable service to the author because at the other end we don’t know how much money the self-published author has to shell out on their end for editing, cover, etc. etc. The reason self-pubbed authors sign with legacy publishers is because there is really no such thing as having a continued career self-publishing pulling off two jobs indefinitely: publisher and author. I think we’re seeing a merging of the paths. I recently signed with Amazon and have my first book coming out from 47North in December and I run my own publishing company, to give you an idea how twisted the paths are getting.

    The list is a valuable thing as one can check tiered pricing. The metrics on the old bestseller lists were flawed at best, with the NY Times being the most unpredictable.

    I think Hollywood focused on box office gross, but even that has it’s own shady number playing. We can all just try our best.

    • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

      There is a piece missing from your analysis, Bob. Those authors with major houses collect advances. MOST of them don’t earn out their advances, so their actual payout is not the percentage that contract stipulates, but a higher one.

      What publishers do — and presumably Amazon has done for you — is shift the risk from author to publisher. That’s for sure. And, it would appear, they also are more successful at getting books sold. Moving units. Building fame. What you see on this list is the *numerator* of the equation, at which Big Six publishers win. If we added in the *denominator*, the number of titles published, they would win even bigger. MUCH bigger.

      Mike

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  • haydnfan

    Without the inclusion of self-published authors from amazon, saying that the bestsellers come from Big 6 is circular reasoning. It’s just that the most reliable information comes from the Big 6. If you want a real bestseller’s list, you have to head to amazon. Amazon will list their top sellers independent of publisher or price.

    • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

      The information isn’t coming from the Big Six. The information isn’t coming from the publishers at all. That’s part of the point.

      And, for all its power, Amazon is still only something more than half of the ebook market. So a book that is a top-seller on Amazon but not selling anywhere else might very well not be a bestseller overall.

      Mike

  • rhadin

    The failure of bestseller lists is to indicate the actual number o9f copies sold. To say that the data doesn’t support the argument that the pricing may be too high is false without sales numbers (as opposed to rankings). The other problem is that it is a comparison of apples and oranges. It is not enough to know that the new Stephen King novel is among the top 10 at $14.99; we also need to know sales numbers and then have the same ebook priced at $3.99 and compare the sales numbers at $3.99 with those at $14.99.
    If King sells 1,000 copies at $14.99 and those sales are enough to put him in the top 10 of $14.99 ebooks, but he sells 25,000 at $3.99 yet doesn’t make the top 10 of $3.99 ebooks, what have we learned? Simply that bestseller lists are no way to evaluate price. We have also learned that $3.99 sells a lot more ebooks.

    • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

      Well, the first problem is that none of the retailers will report sales units.

      Publishers have that information, but on a serious time lag: a month plus.
      The second problem is the notion that we can price Stephen King’s (or anybody else’s) book twice to see which way would work better.

      The DBW consolidated list *is* based on units (because *ranks* are based on units) and it shows that the more expensive books are still the bestsellers in large part, not the cheaper ones.

      So what does *that* tell *you*?

      Mike

      • http://twitter.com/graywave Graham Storrs

        Unfortunately, ranks are not only based on numbers. I believe the Amazon algorithm, for example, includes a weighting for price, too.

      • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

        First I’ve heard of such a “weighting” in Amazon’s rankings. (Do you have a citation or source for that?) That would be very interesting but counterintuitive since they try to promote low prices!

        Mike

      • http://twitter.com/thebooksluts Insatiable Booksluts

        I think you’re missing the point, though–yes, those books make the bestseller lists, largely because people would buy, say, the new Stephen King ebook at nearly ANY price point. It doesn’t prove that it wouldn’t do even better/make more money at a lower price point; if it would make more money at a lower price point, then high prices *are* hurting authors, even if the ebooks are bestsellers at higher price points.

      • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

        Well, we agree on one thing. We don’t actually *know* whether the same book would sell enough more to compensate for bringing the price down.

        But the DBW bestseller lists, launched since this post was written, are showing pretty clearly that lower prices aren’t enough of a spur to push the unknowns past the knowns. And we can also see that the big publishers are experimenting with lower prices, even for big authors.

        Despite some assumptions to the contrary, the big publishers really are NOT dumb. They know the game is to get the most total revenue and they’re experimenting.

        So we agree that you and I don’t know. Where we might not agree is that I think the big publishers have a much better idea than either of us.

        Mike

      • http://twitter.com/thebooksluts Insatiable Booksluts

        One benefit the big publishers have is the bucks to put behind marketing–visibility makes a huge difference when it comes to sales, regardless of price point.

        I’ve never claimed that the publishers are dumb. What I do think is that they’re trying to protect their legacy model–possibly a fear of piracy? We’ve seen this happen already with other digital media, and they’re following suit. By keeping the price of e-books higher than what Smashwords has shown to be the most profitable price points for ebooks, they’re making them less competitive with print copies. Couple that with all of the impassioned statements about print and indie bookstores being the future of publishing–no, I don’t think they’re dumb, but I think it’s possible that they’re misguided… the DOJ suit indicates that, as well.

      • http://idealog.com/blog Mike Shatzkin

        Actually, the DoJ suit makes the DoJ look misguided to me. Not the publishers. But, that aside…

        I don’t think Smashwords has proven by *any* means that the best price for a branded author would be other than where publishers put it. And for all the sound and fury about how great those low prices are, the branded authors are selling more units at higher prices than the fledglings are at low prices. (If you believe Lubart’s DBW bestseller methodology, and I’m inclined to.)

        Of *course* publishers are protecting their legacy model, but the usual argument is that you prevent piracy by lowering prices, not by defending higher ones.

        What major publisher have you seen lately claiming that print and indie bookstores are the “future of publishing.” I know a lot of people in big houses and nobody has said that to me in the past two or three years. And frankly, even before that, people were more optimistic than I was that print and bookstores could hang on, but I never heard it described as “the future”.

        Mike

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