Comments on: Much-trumpeted survey proves the opposite of what the surveyors seem to think it does http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does The Idea Logical Company Blog Sun, 19 May 2013 10:55:30 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: WRITING ON THE ETHER: Springtime for Librarians http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-16032 WRITING ON THE ETHER: Springtime for Librarians Thu, 02 May 2013 12:25:02 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-16032 [...] as this past November (a year after Penguin put OverDrive into the nether gear), MIke Shatzkin in Much-trumpeted survey proves the opposite of what the surveyors seem to think it does  explained the publishing camp’s [...]

]]> By: Reading about eReading this week 11/26/2012 « Allegany County Library System Director's Notes http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15390 Reading about eReading this week 11/26/2012 « Allegany County Library System Director's Notes Mon, 26 Nov 2012 15:17:43 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15390 [...] Much-trumpeted survey proves the opposite of what the surveyors seem to think it does [...]

]]> By: Mike Shatzkin http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15383 Mike Shatzkin Fri, 23 Nov 2012 22:30:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15383 I think it is reasonable to assume that most people who buy and borrow would tend to be less likely to buy what they could borrow. I can’t prove it, but it seems intuitively correct. So what they buy is totally relevant to the publisher who is trying to sell a particular book.

And I know enough about statistics to know that hitting the same number raises a flag, given the range of realistic possibilities. If they were the *same* people, that could only happen by some outside force. The laws of probability would definitely prohibit it.

Mike

]]> By: oysterfarm http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15382 oysterfarm Fri, 23 Nov 2012 22:25:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15382 Couple of points: the argument of the survey results is simply that people both buy and borrow. In some cases, they may buy what they have borrowed and, in many cases not. It is the same with printed books – library borrowers buy books, whether electronic or print. The important point is that they are in the market place, buying. What they buy is irrelevant.

On the point about the same number of respondents not completing: this would only be remarkable if they were the same people.

]]> By: WRITING ON THE ETHER: Eye of the Turkey | Jane Friedman http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15380 WRITING ON THE ETHER: Eye of the Turkey | Jane Friedman Thu, 22 Nov 2012 15:40:40 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15380 [...] In Much-trumpeted survey proves the opposite of what the surveyors seem to think it does, he demonstrates that it might not be so valuable to insist that a large percentage of library patrons are also heavy buyers of books. Ironically, it might be better news for libraries than finding that power borrowers are also big buyers. What if the survey had said “we have found no overlap at all! The people who borrow ebooks from libraries never buy an ebook. They only borrow.” [...]

]]> By: Mike Shatzkin http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15378 Mike Shatzkin Wed, 21 Nov 2012 16:50:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15378 Joseph, a deep link to the post you want us to see would be much more helpful than a link to the home page of your site, which this appears to be.
Mike

]]> By: Joseph Sanchez http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15377 Joseph Sanchez Wed, 21 Nov 2012 16:42:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15377 I am a librarian and I argued something similar earlier this week. There is also the commodification effect that needs to be considered. Ebooks have a potential for commodification more than print items, which means they are fungible, meaning people dont care where they get them as long as they can. see my post at http://www.thebookmyfriend.com

]]> By: Andrew Rhomberg http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15376 Andrew Rhomberg Tue, 20 Nov 2012 21:17:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15376 spin, spin, spin

or because most people don’t have much training in stastics or Baysian logic

]]> By: Mike Shatzkin http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15375 Mike Shatzkin Tue, 20 Nov 2012 21:07:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15375 Your point number 1 is exactly the way I see it.

Has what I said been said by anybody else yet? Kind of amazing to me that this isn’t obvious to many people.

Mike

]]> By: Andrew Rhomberg http://www.idealog.com/blog/much-trumpeted-survey-proves-the-opposite-of-what-the-surveyors-seem-to-think-it-does/#comment-15374 Andrew Rhomberg Tue, 20 Nov 2012 20:45:00 +0000 http://www.idealog.com/?p=6466#comment-15374 Great analysis Mike (as always):

When I saw the report, I thought two things:

1) Imagine that I (or anybody else like me) would rather borrow for free – any ebook they can get at the local library and if they can’t, they’ll buy it. The survey data would be 100% aligned with such a model.

2) People who borrow books form libraries also buy books, but the survey never, never tells us if people buy the SAME books they borrowed. All it shows is that people who use the libraries frequently (i.e. they read a lot) also buy a lot of books. Surprise, surprise.

To pick up on your point above: what we need is the data for a Venn diagram.One circle would be library users and one circle would eb book buyers. The folks in the overlapping section of the two circles would be those who willingly buy books (especially if they are not available for loan) while those in the non-overlapping sectiona would be (1) library patrons who never buy books (they only read for free) and (2) those who always buy the book and the (i.e. because using Overdrive software is just too clumsy an experience or because they don’t want to spend tax payer money, etc.).

If there were no overlap between the circles, then we would have the scenario you – hypothetically – describe above (library buyers never buy books), but if we have 90% overlap, then we basically have a case of huge, huge cannnibalization.

The problem is that Overdrive et al have no incentive to collect THAT kind of data (to echo the point of another commenter).

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