DRM

I think just about everybody has fun at Digital Book World, but it is hard to have more fun there than I do. It’s damn near a year of work coming together over a couple of days with dozens of smart speakers making me personally look good for putting them on the program. So they work hard and satisfy the audience and I get congratulated. What could be better (for me) than that?

(OK, I did do a little bit of work. Besides emceeing the show and co-hosting the final panel, I delivered opening remarks trying to set the stage.)

There were a lot of great takeaways this year. Perhaps the biggest news was the final presentation before the wrap-up panel Michael Cader and I hosted. That was by Matteo Berlucchi, the CEO of Anobii, a UK-based ebook retailer that has substantial investment from Penguin, Random House, and HarperCollins. Matteo didn’t exactly “call for the end” of DRM, but he certainly described a better world without it. And the main point he made was, “I want to sell to Kindle customers and the only way I can do that is if we get rid of DRM.” The combination of the message and the messenger made this the most newsworthy presentation of the show, I thought.

But the factoid that most grabbed me was delivered on the previous day as part of the data developed by AllRomanceebooks.com about the romance readers market. Very superficially, the point being made was also about DRM, but that’s actually a distraction. There was a much larger point buried within.

All Romance is a specialized ebook retailer. To serve the romance reader community more effectively, they’ve built out the BISAC taxonomy for romance, adding more categories. And they’ve added a metadata element called “flames” which basically measure the frequency and explicitness of the sex scenes in any particular book.

The romance world, particularly among the cognescenti in it, is a very anti-DRM environment. And an outfit like All Romance, which has no “device lock-in” working for them — essentially everything they sell gets “side-loaded” somehow, and DRM can often make that more challenging — is right in step with their community sentiment. So the survey contained questions trying to get at the audience attitude about DRM.

There were two relevant stats that I recall. One is that only about 20% of even All Romance’s readers really resist books with DRM. That is to say: 80% don’t. But the factoid that grabbed me is that 96% (that’s not a typo: ninety-six percent) of the ebooks they sell do not have DRM.

All Romance also reports that 91% of the titles they have available are protected by DRM. That makes sense, since all the titles from all the Big Six publishers and all the titles from Harlequin except those from their new digital-first imprint, Carina, have DRM.

What this means is that the nine percent of All Romance’s offerings that do not have DRM are selling 96% of their units overall. And since only 20% of their customers find DRM as a strong deterrent to sales, that means those fledglings are outselling all the majors for other reasons.

This provokes two very important lines of inquiry to me, and neither of them have anything to do with DRM.

The first one would be top of mind to me if I were a major publisher. What are these books that are selling like hotcakes? Why are these books selling like hotcakes? Why can’t we publish these books that are selling like hotcakes?

It is a virtual certainty that a lot more romance ebooks are sold through the “traditional” channels like the Kindle and Nook and Kobo stores than through All Romance. But they have a market big enough to get 6,000 respondants to a survey in a couple of weeks so they’re definitely serving a big clientele. They’ve obviously aggregated an audience that is buying a lot of books that major publishers are missing. Some of this is due to price, undoubtedly, since the All Romance stats also showed robust sales at price points below where the majors are usually most comfortable. Some of it could be attributed to a raunchier title selection being compiled by the smaller upstart title selection (remember All Romance’s “flame” ratings.) Some of it might be loyalty to authors who could be signed up by majors with the right offers.

But if 24 out of every 25 books being sold by a pretty damn big specialist retailer to the biggest ebook genre that I competed in were outside of my immediate competitive set (which, for the Big Six, is basically each other and Harlequin), I’d want to know more about the details of that. And I’d also be asking All Romance what I could do to get more sales from their audience. I have a feeling they’d say that better metadata, more sex (within the pages of the books, that is), and lower prices are all more important than stripping off the DRM, but it’s s conversation the big publishers should be having with them.

The second question that the data provokes to me is whether this phenomenon — all these successful books outside the purview of the major houses — is a unique characteristic of romance books. I don’t know if there’s an All Mystery ebooks vendor or an All Thrillers ebook vendor or even an All Sci-Fi ebook vendor (I’ll bet we’ll find out from our comment string after this is posted!!!) but, if there is, it would be interesting to find out if this is true there too.

These are the immediate questions All Romance’s appearance put in the front of my mind. I think they show another aspect of verticalization. As a vertical retailer, they invent new metadata elements that really help them merchandise to their audience. What that suggests is an opportunity for an All History or All Politics retailer as well; enhancing metadata might be even more valuable for non-fiction subjects than it is for specialized fiction.

There was an article about Amazon by Brad Stone in this week’s issue of Bloomberg Business Week in which I was quoted about Larry Kirshbaum, the former head of Time Warner Book Group (now Hachette) and currently the head of a new Amazon imprint whose mission it is to recruit mainstream authors to be published by the retailer. Many of Larry’s former colleagues and counterparts at big publishers take this decision of his to join Amazon extremely personally and it is reflected in what they say they now feel about Larry himself. That was reflected in my quote which says that Larry “has gone from one of the most well-liked people in publishing to the one of the most reviled.”

I want to make clear that I was not expressing my personal opinion. I still very much like Larry Kirshbaum and I’m a bit embarrassed to be quoted (even accurately) characterizing the feeling about him in these terms. The people running big NY houses see Amazon as a bare-knuckled competitor. With their responsibility for the continued success and viability of their own enterprises and the threat Amazon poses in that regard, contentiousness is built into the interaction and competition between Amazon and the big publishers. I believe my quote accurately reflected the degree to which that is transferred to personal feelings, even for somebody whom so many people have known and liked for years. Although I well understand the feelings my quote described, this is one case where I wish I hadn’t been so candid.

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This comes up often and I grit my teeth every time.

You can’t have a discussion of any length about ebook sales and pricing and DRM in any sized group of digital publishing observers before you hear that it is somehow wrong or unfair that a “purchaser” can’t do everything with an ebook they’ve bought that they do with a print book they’ve bought.

That is: various “controls”, sometimes deliberate (DRM) and sometimes circumstantial (tech doesn’t always work smoothly) make it hard or impossible to lend, give, or re-sell an ebook in the same way that you do a printed book. Have enough of these conversations and you will become educated about “first sale” rights, which are enshrined in law, which basically say that when you buy something you own it and can lend, give, or re-sell it.

So the way the complaint often goes is that those damn publishers are putting this damn DRM on my ebooks so I can’t do all the things with them I can do with my print books.

This has always struck me as highly questionable on its face. First sale rights make complete sense with something physical. They make no sense with something digital. When you lend, give, or re-sell a print book, you don’t have it anymore. When you lend, give, or re-sell a digital file, you still have it and you could lend, give, or re-sell it again and again without limit. Surely, that’s a distinction that justifies a departure from the physical world paradigm.

The complaint that first sale rights are being abused — often delivered as a complaint about publishers — proceeds from a fundamental misunderstanding that publishers themselves are entirely responsible for creating. You don’t actually “buy” an ebook the same way you buy a physical book. What you actually buy is a license to access a digital file, which — in the developing world of the cloud — you may or may not ultimately “possess” in any machine or device you own. (Of course, you can own the machine or device, which is physical. If you lend, give, or re-sell it, you won’t have it anymore.)

Publishers promulgated this misunderstanding. From the beginning, publishers analogized ebook distribution to print book distribution. They started out using about the same retail price and about the same discount structure to intermediaries as they did with print books. Some, at the very beginning, even tried to make the royalties the same (in the neighborhood of 5 to 15 percent of the retail price.) It seemed simple and it seemed logical. It has turned out to be neither.

There is a core reason why publishers promote this nomenclature of misunderstanding. Publishing contracts vary widely, but one thing is pretty common among all of them and has been for a very long time. They enumerate the splits between publishers and authors on rights sale revenue for a long list of possible transactions: first serial, second serial, book clubs, paperbacks, cheap hardcover editions, foreign editions in English, foreign editions in foreign languages, and others.

And then they almost all say — almost forever have said — that all rights transactions not enumerated will see revenue divided between authors and publishers 50-50. In fact, according to some agents, even in contracts where an ebook royalty is specified, the sale of electronic book rights are almost always specifically designated as a 50-50 split.

So if publishers called their ebook transactions what I believe they really are — rights licenses — they’d have what looks to me (but I’m not a lawyer) like a contractual obligation to pay authors half the revenue. Since that is double what many publishers, and all the big publishers, think is “fair” and commercially viable, there’s no motivation to move the conversation back in that direction, even if it would make the consumer interaction, and the restrictions policed by DRM, sensible.

Of course, smart agents have been thinking about this question too. They see very clearly that ebook sales are different from print book sales. First of all, ebook sales are — almost without exception — governed by a contract between the publisher and the consumer’s source. That’s not true (with very rare exceptions) for relationships between publishers and print retailers or wholesalers. But it is true for the relationship between publishers and book clubs. In fact, the book club paradigm has much more in common with the ebook marketplace than the publisher-bookseller relationship does. Book club deals are covered by licenses. Book clubs “print” their own editions, just as ebook resellers deliver the books in their own proprietary format or DRM.

It is worth emphasizing here that the publisher is (in today’s world) very seldom delivering the file directly to the end consumer. The fact that the publisher gives the intermediary a clean digital file, which the intermediary then manipulates and copies (or, we could say, “prints” in its own proprietary edition) to deliver to its customers underscores that there is activity betwixt publisher and consumer that falls under a license. And it is a license that is spelled out in a contractual relationship.

But agents have apparently chosen, at least for now, not to fight the royalty battle with publishers on these terms. For any agent to do so would be employing a sort-of “nuclear option”; they might be right and they might even win in court (eventually), but they’d effectively deal themselves out of the game from the moment they attempted to enforce this position.

This is symmetrical with the publishers’ restraint on the non-compete clause. From the publishers’ perspective, it is transparent and obvious that an ebook edition competes with a print book edition of the same book. All book contracts have non-compete language. But no publisher has yet used that particular argument to strongarm an author who wants to self-publish an ebook when their print contract didn’t contemplate ebooks. Both sides — despite the flare-up that occurred last year when Andrew  Wylie appeared to go toe-to-toe with publishers for a little while before he apparently backed down — want to continue doing business and prefer to negotiate solutions rather than attempt to impose them, even if they have a very strong position.

And agents are aware that they and their authors might also benefit from the misunderstanding about whether the ebook transaction is a sale or a license. If it is a license that doesn’t explicitly grant first sale privileges (and, by the way, it actually often is already: check your Kindle agreement with Amazon!), then consumers might insist on paying less for it than they do for print. At least, that has been a component of their restraint. Now that ebook prices, most dramatically for hardcovers, have been coming down in relation to the print prices (first through Amazon’s deep-discounting initiative, and then made permanent by publishers lowering their established prices when they switched to agency), consumers are getting a dollars-off deal as compared to print much (though not all) of the time.

Even though authors don’t sell their copyrights to publishers (they license their use) and publishers don’t sell inventory or even production masters to ebook resellers (they license them to replicate and distribute the publishers’ ebook files), the fiction that Kindle or Nook or Kobo or Google or iBookstore is selling the book to you or me will persist. If we had truth in labeling here, it would make the restrictions comprehensible. It would even make consumers understand why Amazon was within its rights (and upholding its responsibilities) when it chose to “cancel” the licenses it granted erroneously for an edition of “1984″ a couple of years ago. We can all recall the high dudgeon among many observers when they infamously reached into people’s Kindles and erased a file they were given by somebody who did not have the rights to grant those licenses to it. But truth in labeling would also eliminate an ambiguity that works in favor of publishers’ margins today.

What would worry me if I were a publisher is that someday somebody who is not an agent trying to keep things sweet with publisher customers will file a lawsuit to make the case that ebook sales are licenses already covered in just about every publishing contract. That would suggest a potential liability equal to half the ebook revenue minus what has been paid so far on every ebook ever sold under any contract where that kind of rights split language still governs. Publishers have perhaps mitigated their exposure by putting new ebook agreements in place with many authors, but they still wouldn’t want a court poking its nose into this particular problem.

On the other hand, it would certainly make things a lot clearer and stop a lot of silly conversations if we all understood that ebook access is granted by license, not sale.

Looking forward to lots of hellos at Tools of Change this week. I’m sure, as always, it will be a jam-packed and stimulating couple of days.

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There is a lot of disagreement about piracy and DRM (digital rights management) among thinkers in the publishing space. This post will express a few thoughts about both but, mainly, this post is a plea not to conflate the two into the same discussion. In fact, whether they are part of the same discussion appears to be as contentious a point as whether piracy is a threat to publishers and whether DRM should be employed at all.

First, let’s define some terms. I make a distinction (which is not universally accepted) between piracy — which I would define as making a copyrighted file available for free access to anybody who comes along — and “casual sharing”. Casual sharing takes place between people who know each other; piracy takes place among strangers.

It has been observed by many for a long time that DRM does very little to prevent piracy, which is usually executed through web sites that host unprotected versions of content. It has been frequently demonstrated that DRM can readily be “broken” (I have two friends who routinely break it for sport: one in the US who isn’t in the publishing business and one in Brazil who is. Neither of them ever sell or transfer the jailbroken files, but they peel off the protection just to prove they can. And they say they always can.) In fact, books which had never existed in digital editions, like the Harry Potter series, are served up on pirate web sites.

You can scan a printed book and create a digital file pretty readily. There’s recently been a gadget introduced that provides a little automation for that capability. But you can buy content conversion commercially that will give you an ebook file from a printed book for low hundreds of dollars per title. So I would emphatically agree that DRM would do little or nothing to deter a pirate who has a minimum of determination to deliver a pirated ebook file, whether there was DRM or not; whether there was an ebook at all or not!

But casual sharing is another matter, or so it seems to me. People share published material all the time through email, usually by forwarding a link to something they want somebody else to see but sometimes by attaching a file or embedding text or images in the body of an email. Some people (my wife among them) maintain mailing lists of people whom they alert about one thing or another. This kind of person-to-person curation is the new automation-assisted word-of-mouth, and it is a critical component of modern communication.

So here’s what I think. I have no idea whether piracy helps sales or hurts them but, whatever it does, I can’t see how DRM prevents it. But I do think DRM prevents “casual sharing” (it sure stops me; and I think most people are more like me than they are like my friends who break DRM for sport) and I believe — based on faith, not on data — that enabling casual sharing would do real damage to ebook sales with the greatest damage to the biggest books.

Big general publishers survive based on the performance of their biggest books. Agents survive based on the sales of their biggest authors. So the biggest publishers and the biggest agents, if they see it the way I do, would be in favor of DRM even if does nothing at all to prevent the kind of piracy they attempt to cure with take-down notices.

There are a lot of good reasons to dislike DRM. It can make purchasing or consuming something harder. It is apparently responsible for the lion’s share of customer service costs for all ebook vendors. It can foil legitimate use by a legitimate purchaser. And it costs money and adds complications. In general, the more comfortable you are with technology, the more likely you are to be annoyed by DRM.

But it drives me a bit nuts when people attribute the belief that DRM protects against piracy to everybody who accepts the sense of using it.

So with this as background, I picked up a link earlier this week to an interview on O’Reilly Radar with my office-mate (but a man who very much runs his own business) Brian O’Leary entitled “What’s the current impact of piracy on the book publishing industry?” Brian has been trying for almost three years to measure the real effect of pirated editions (not casual sharing) on sales. His method is to watch the pirate sites for the appearance of books and then to measure the sales for the weeks before the pirated edition appears and the weeks after. If piracy is cannibalizing sales, one would expect to see a decline following the appearance of the pirate edition. If piracy is stimulating sales through additional word of mouth, one would expect to see sales rise.

Of course, the data to do this analysis can only come from the publishers and publishers, despite their often-professed concern about piracy (and their apparent willingness to spend a lot of money to track and combat it), have mostly not been willing to participate in Brian’s efforts to measure its impact. But what Brian did see (mostly through O’Reilly data, and O’Reilly is a DRM-free publisher) suggested that piracy might lift sales more often than it hurts them.

In the interview, Brian makes some very good points but then I get to this:

“I’m pretty adamant on DRM: It has no impact whatsoever on piracy. Any good pirate can strip DRM in a matter of seconds to minutes. A pirate can scan a print copy easily as well.” (I agree about the “good pirates”, but is the “no impact” statement data-driven? I doubt it.) But then:

“DRM is really only useful for keeping people who otherwise might have shared a copy of a book from doing so.” So, he’s against DRM even though he agrees it prevents casual sharing. And I’m not aware that anybody, including Brian, has ever attempted to measure the impact of casual sharing.

This is interesting, because he and I have exactly the same opinion about what DRM can and can’t do, but we don’t have the same opinion about whether it should be applied or not!

The point that Brian makes which I take to heart, though, is about trying to base opinions on data whenever possible rather than on conjecture. Many of his colleagues-in-arms against DRM attribute its continuance with ignorant and wrong-headed thinking: publishers and agents who somehow are deluded into thinking that by using DRM they restrain piracy. At the same time, concern about casual sharing is either ignored or elided.

And while gathering data about the true effect of piracy is difficult and gathering data about the potential true effect of unfettered sharing of commercial books is impossible, I am in a good position to gather data about what senior publishing executives and powerful agents believe about piracy, casual sharing, and DRM. So I created an informal survey to find out.

I asked three questions.

1. Do you think DRM is necessary to protect the sales of ebooks for popular titles?

2. Do you think DRM is an effective check against piracy?

3. Do you think the main benefit of DRM is that it prevents casual sharing?

I asked top executives in major houses and agents who handle major authors.

Nine executives and four agents (more than half the number I asked) were kind enough to come back to me with answers (so far). I’ll report on the findings in my next post.

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People of a certain age — mine — probably first encountered the world of rights as a content consumer with pop music in the 1960s. British albums, which came in sleeves that were flimsier cardboard than American album sleeves, routinely had 15 songs. American albums had 12. And the British would put songs out as singles that didn’t make their way into albums more often than Americans did.

So we teenage afficionados of the Beatles and the Rolling Stones, of which there were many in my time, learned pretty quickly that there wasn’t a one-to-one relationship between the music available to the Brits and what was available to us. Their Rubber Soul and Help albums had more songs than our Rubber Soul and Help albums. Beatles for Sale was a British album which never came out over here. We had Something New pulling together songs that they had released as singles or on other albums.

It’s damn near 50 years later, but rights are still getting in my way in a different medium: sports. Even though the technology would make it very easy to make it available, I couldn’t watch the football games the Giants played while I was in Europe for Frankfurt. There would be money in this, of course. I’d pay and so would lots of others. But the deals haven’t been struck. Undoubtedly larger deals (some NFL games are televised in Europe and I’m sure those rights acquirers are happier if I can’t pull in the game I want on my computer) get in the way of this smaller one.

In the past several months, readers of this blog from around the world have commented on the unavailability of ebook titles in their territories even though publishers would have the right to sell them. As near as we can tell, this problem often tracks back to big publishers that have gone to agency pricing. (That’s where the publisher sets the price to the end consumer and becomes the seller-of-record rather than the retailer intermediary being the seller.) It would appear that many (if not all) agency publishers have withheld their titles in territories outside the United States, even if they would have the rights to sell in those territories.

That particular cause of the problem of unavailability is probably temporary. In fact, some publishers are just now announcing the availability of agency books in Australia. The agency model was a complicated challenge taken up in great haste by the US publishers to meet the hard deadline imposed by iPad’s introduction into the market and Apple’s iBookstore opening to serve it. Non-US consumers weren’t the only ones to suffer. It is now more than six months since agency began, and one large domestic independent ebook retailer, Diesel Ebooks, just blogged about how few retailers had, six months out, been able to secure the titles from all five of those publishers. The publishers are finding that the need to do lawyered-up deals with each particular point of transaction for their books is no trivial barrier to distribution. But it isn’t a permanent one; the deals get made eventually.

Here’s another complication I learned about this week. Amazon.co.uk, the British arm, sells only in the UK. It is Amazon.com, the US site, that sells globally. So if the rights to, let’s say Switzerland, are owned by the UK publisher, that publisher would have to have the ebook available through the US branch of Amazon or it wouldn’t be available to the Amazon customer in Switzerland!

This piece of information comes to me because of a discussion last week on the Brantley list triggered by the launch of a website by agent Jane Litte attempting to track lost sales. The site simply asks readers who wanted to buy a book (print or digital) and either couldn’t or didn’t why they didn’t.

One publisher on the list immediately looked up the complaints against his house, which the web site makes very easy to do. Among the first books he saw was one where his company had US rights only. The complaint was from a person who couldn’t get the book in a territory controlled by the UK publisher. Yet the US publisher was listed as the “culprit” failing to make the book available.

A long series of comments failed to get to the bottom of the problem. For one thing, we didn’t know whether the unavailability complaint applied to print or digital (which resulted in an improvement to the site that will enable the complainant to make that clear in the future.) But then we also don’t know how hard or efficiently the complainant looked for the book.

In other words, the site does the job of aggregating complaints about book unavailability, but does not adequately curate them. And it turns out that not all the “lost book sales” were due to unavailability; some were simply due to the consumer wanting a lower price. That is, perhaps, useful information but it is of an entirely different sort.

(Quite aside from the point to this post, every publisher should be harvesting and analyzing data from Jane’s site as, I’m sure, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, and The Book Depository will! If you accept the responsibility seriously for being in touch with the people who read your books or are interested in them, you will want all the data points you can get and if this site gets a lot of traffic, it will provide unique data. “Harvesting and analyzing” does not mean “over-reacting”, by the way.)

It is clear — from this site’s data but even more from the complaints in comments on this blog and Cader’s reporting on Publishers Lunch — that ebook availability is frequently being blocked by rights controls. It has seemed to many of us that having a single global publisher would make that problem go away.

But that solution offers little comfort since global publishers are or were (at least temporarily) blocking sales from happening in territories where they actually have rights, because they hadn’t worked out all the logistics of agency selling in all territories yet.

The failure of availability of ebooks due to territorial restrictions is, to many, confirmation that the time-developed system of rights allocation, compounded by DRM in the digital world, is simply broken. This is another point of conflict between people whose highest value is ubiquitous availability of content (some without regard to the content consumer’s ability or willingness to pay) and those who value even more the right of the content creator or owner to maximize the revenue from that content’s use.

Just about the first rule any agent or publisher engaged in rights dealing learns is “acquire rights broadly, license rights narrowly.” Any agent who is a competent professional holds back any rights they can in any deal they make. And most agents trying to maximize an author’s English-language revenue starts with the assumption that they accomplish that by making separate deals in New York and London. Those deals are still primarily about print books. Ebook rights and various other territories, like Europe, are still pawns in the bigger game.

I am one who believes that digital change will lead us to a world where there is one global publisher for most books depending on a network of alliances to execute some aspects of marketing and to maximize distribution everywhere. But I also think our wait for that change to be widespread is going to be a long one; it is many years away. In the meantime, consumers of books will find — as music consumers did in the 60s and sports fans still do today — that what appear to be nonsensical barriers block them from purchasing and consuming content that technology could easily deliver to them and for which they’d be happy to pay a fair price.

But the barriers placed by rights to digital distribution are far less onerous than the barriers placed by practical realities have been to physical distribution. And they’ll come down faster. The agents who carve up the rights to maximize the author’s financial return (and their own) will be thinking about the implications of consumers blocked from purchasing them and one wouldn’t be surprised to see future deals require publishers to make ebooks available in all the territories for which they demand ebook rights. They will have author clients bugging them to do that. Unfortunately, nobody playing football for the New York Giants cares whether I can watch them in Frankfurt or not.

On another topic, but my favorite topic, I have come across this post by Andrew Davies, the MD of a tech company called Idio in the UK. I had the pleasure of meeting Andrew for an hour’s chat in London last month. But I call your attention to his post because it states the case I’ve been trying to make for years – that publishers need to get into community leadership while they can because the business of selling content must inevitably decline — incredibly succinctly and eloquently. I don’t know enough about Idio’s technology to recommend it, but I can sure recommend this piece as an example of clear and cogent thinking about the future today’s publishers face.

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Big publishers have to be very happy about how things have been developing in the ebook world over the last six months or so. In that time, we have gone from a situation in which Kindle appeared to so totally dominate digital reading that Kindle-only publishing seemed an imminent threat to disintermediate publishers to one where it is not only Amazon’s hegemony that is threatened. Even their position as the ebook market leader isn’t safe.

Although one of the big factors in this change, the iPad, was unforseen at the time, we wrote around 16 months ago about the possibility that Amazon’s position leading the pack on ebooks would be hard to defend in one of the first posts on this blog.

As the ebook world has evolved (so far), we have the following “facts on the ground.” You will see from this recitation why so many people outside commercial publishing see eliminating DRM as a key to ebook marketplace efficiency. Our guess is that, regardless of the merits of the idea, going DRM-free is a non-starter for the big houses because it will be a non-starter with most big authors and most big agents.

1. If you buy an ebook from the Kindle store, you can read it on many devices within the Kindle reader software. That software is currently available for the iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, PC, Mac, and Blackberry with Android reportedly on the verge. If the Kindle book has no DRM, though, you can read it on any reader that supports the Mobi format or you can use a program like Calibre to convert your Kindle book to epub, which can be read on just about all other devices.

2. But if you buy an ebook from Kobo or BN (through their “reader” software, not for the Nook), you can do the very same thing (and Kobo’s Android app is at least a bit ahead of Kindle’s; it was announced over the last weekend).

3. If you buy a book from iBooks, the iPad bookstore, you can only read it on an iPad and, soon, on an iPhone. That is, unless it were DRM-free which is, some are told, an option for publishers.

4. If you want to read on a Kindle device, you can only read books you buy from the Kindle store (unless you select from DRM-free mobi files, which leaves out the biggest books).

5. If you buy a Nook, you can theoretically read epub content obtained elsewhere by putting it through its DRM paces at Adobe Digital Editions, but it ain’t easy. My expert on these subjects, Kirk Biglione, points out that this is one of the big advantages of loading devices through wireless means (which sidestep having to deal with ADE) rather than computer synching. Because ADE is a challenge for most people, the interoperability across devices promised for epub files is, for protected files, more theoretical than real.

6. The Sony Reader is like the Nook: theoretically able to handle anything epub but made much more difficult by Adobe DRM. Sony is also suffering at the moment from having no apparent mobile strategy.

7. Bottom line: DRM creates hassles if you try to read on anything except the platform on which you bought. But Kindle, Kobo, and BN Reader (not Nook), provide a pretty seamless experience across devices.

8. The promise of the presumably-imminent Google Editions is that you will be able to read them on all systems that browse the web (except that Kindle’s browsing is not going to provide a terribly satisfying experience and Sony, which doesn’t provide a web browser, is probably left out of the Google Editions party).

So the e-ink devices generate the real lock-in, or, more often, lock-out, problem. It is your Kindle device that locks you into the Kindle store; your Kindle file can be ported to a non-Kindle device using the Kindle reader software.

This is a mixed, but probably mostly negative, blessing for future sales of Kindle devices. On the one hand, consumers who figure this out will be increasingly unwilling to chain themselves to a reader that makes them buy files they can’t use elsewhere. On the other hand, the spouse of a friend cracked her Kindle a few days ago and because of the hundreds of books she’d bought over the years from the Kindle store, couldn’t really consider purchasing any other reader as a replacement. So she bought a new Kindle.

So while the Kindle store almost certainly still has the most titles of any ebook retailer, Amazon is definitely facing some uphill battles selling devices to new customers. Even before the iPad hit in April, DigiTimes reported that Nook devices outsold Kindles in March. (Could this be the power of 700 retail locations talking after the cream of the online customer base had already been harvested by Amazon over the past 2+ years?) Then they reported yesterday that total e-ink monochrome ebook reader sales were 700,000+ for April and May, of which 37% were Nook and 16% were Kindle. In the same two months, of course, Apple reports selling 2 million iPads. So, in two months, iPads outsold Kindle devices about 20 to 1.

That means that even if 2 million new iPad owners, on average, buy 1/3 as many ebooks as 700,000 new single-purpose ebook device purchasers, the larger, full-color, web-ready screens sold in the last two months would be responsible for as much ebook consumption as the book-dedicated devices.

Meanwhile, the device prices are coming down sharply. Kobo announced a $159 device on sale at Borders a month ago. Since then Borders announced their own branded device for $119. Then Barnes & Noble cut the price of the Nook to $149 for the wifi model and $199 equipped with 3G. Many had been anticipating a price cut before year-end by Amazon from the $259 level they have maintained; but the B&N move forced their hand and Kindle just announced they were coming down to $189. Because aside from all the competition that Kindle faces on the device side, the Agency model has made it harder for them to keep customers loyal with a pricing advantage on the biggest books.

What this adds up to is that a much more diversified marketplace is developing for ebooks than publishers would have dared hope for a year ago. This, in turn, makes the customized ebook offering that Ingram is enabling (as they announced last week in a deal with F+W) even more powerful, because more and more devices — and therefore consumers — will be able to readily take advantage of ebook offers that aren’t served up from the Kindle store. Since one of the great unmet challenges of book sales on the web is merchandising — making it quick and easy for consumers to find what they want — curated offerings on specialized sites might really work better for a lot of people. And then Amazon will feel some of the pain that big publishers do, being horizontal in an increasingly vertical world.

On the other hand, big publishers have apparently lived past the danger of a massive problem: the possibility that authors could find most of their audience by setting up with Kindle alone. There is still more complexity to be added. Google will arrive shortly with a big splash. Newcomers Copia (a client of Idea Logical) and Blio are still planning market entries in 2010, and they each have some unique propositions the current players do not. The more different places an ebook might successfully be sold; the more variety in the way ebooks get merchandised; and the more benefit that can accrue from effective distribution of files and metadata; the more a publisher with some savvy will look like a sensible option to an author who might be thinking of a do-it-yourself effort.

There was a conference called Untethered last week. I didn’t go because it was an “all publishing” conference about technology, and I am skeptical about any horizontal approach. But there was a panel of publishing CEOs asked to estimate how much of book sales would be ebooks five years from now. The high guesses were 40-50%. I think they’re low. And if the question is what percentage of the books that are narrative writing are ebooks by five years from now, I think they are way low. (Apologies to the first batch of people to see this post and those who got it by subscription because I hadn’t quite finished this thought when I put it up. I saw it later and fixed it.)

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Kindle is certainly engendering a lot of confusion by billboarding the downloads of free ebooks as “sales.” That paradoxical scorekeeping was the lead for an article by Motoko Rich in The New York Times on Saturday that quoted a lot of people, some apparently disagreeing with each other, but none of them necessarily wrong.

There really are three separate questions to consider, which get elided in these conversations.

1. What is the impact of giving away ebooks as a promotional device, either to boost the word of mouth on the book being given away or to promote an author’s other titles?

2. What is the potential impact on the industry overall of ubiquitous giveaways of ebooks that would apparently have commercial value?

3. When ebooks are given away, how should that sale be “scored” in any measurement of the book’s popularity?

The answer to the first question appears, anecdotally but just about universally, to be that giving ebooks away boosts sales of that title and related titles. Rich’s piece sites numerous publishers attesting to that. She apparently found no publisher that is skeptical about whether giveaway promotions work or has seen the tactic fail. And that would confirm my experience: I don’t know of one.

But as we’ve noted before, this effect could change over time. We’re still in a period where ebooks are not an acceptable format to most book readers. That means the benefits of giving them away is not confined to the word-of-mouth from the recipients, it can result in a print book purchase by the very person you gave it to! As ebook reading becomes more popular, particularly if we go to a DRM-free universe, the impact of cannibalization from giveaways could grow dramatically from what it is now.

The second question is what is apparently paramount to David Young of Hachette (as quoted in the Rich piece) and is influencing the policies described at Penguin. As more and more ebooks are given away, it offers a wider array of choice to people who prefer to select from the free offerings and just never pay. For the last 15 years of his life, my father, Len Shatzkin, refused to buy anything except remainders. He shopped from several mail order catalogs and, if he was in a bookstore, shopped at the bargain tables. His position was that if publishers were going to be dumb enough to reliably give the books away six months or a year later, he’d just wait and choose his reading from among what had been marked down. With free ebook marketing the way it is today, sometimes you don’t even have to wait!

And that’s obviously what was on Young’s mind when he said the tactic was “illogical.” It is illogical if you take a long-term, industry-health view of the situation. It is totally logical if you’re trying for short-term advantage to break a new book or build a particular author, as most of the other authors and publishers were trying to say.

There was a long comment string on the HarperStudio blog about this question six or eight months ago. I said at the time that I figured that if these giveaways kept spreading, one of our more industrious web entrepreneurs would create an ebooksforfree.com site which would be a consumer directory to “free” offers at various publishers and web retailers, title by title.

It’s a classic Tragedy of the Commons. Each person giving away ebooks succeeds in their intentions to boost their sales, but everybody will pay for the overgrazing in the end.

The third question is a tricky one. It is worth noting that the App Store makes it very easy to for the consumer to decide whether to shop the free apps or the priced apps. I think Amazon is hurting themselves by not at least sorting their bestseller pages that way. And they don’t. Amazon says the Kindle bestseller listings change every hour: I just checked the Top 10 and found one 25 cent book, one book at a substantial price (higher than $9.99), and eight free. Some of the eight free were self-promoters like the lead in Rich’s story; some were public domain; some were multi-book authors from established publishers. But only one of the Top 10 was elected with votes paid for with dollars from the Kindle clientele, which is what I think most people looking at “best sellers” would be looking for.

This raises a question I don’t know the answer to and my way to do the research will be to see if somebody with knowledge posts a comment. Kindle reports to the USA Today Bestseller List. This is, as far as I know, the only reflection of ebook popularity in the public domain. It would be interesting to know if USA Today has a standard for that reporting. Of course, most of the “weight” of the USA Today list, quite properly, would be print sales so whatever Kindle reports might not move the needle much. Most sales today are still print sales. But we’re headed for a crazy world if the concept of what “sold best” is expanded to include what people were willing to take for free.

On the other hand, if you try to separate free from paid, you will still face the question of where to draw the line. If publishers sell a $20 hardcover as a $5 ebook, should those units count equally in determining bestseller status? How about a dollar? How about a penny?

A tip of the hat here to my sometimes colleague Brian O’Leary of Magellan Media, who hinted at what I have said at length in this piece in his brief turn in Rich’s article. Brian has done extensive research that tends to confirm what Rich’s interviews and my anecdotal information suggest: that giving away ebooks boost sales in the present marketplace. But Brian managed to bridge the enthusiasm of the giveaway marketers and the incredulity expressed by David Young with his observation that there was a risk that free reading could eventually “supplant paid reading.”

And that wouldn’t really be good for anybody.

This is absolutely the last post you will see promoting Digital Book World 2010, which is on this Tuesday and Wednesday at the New York Sheraton and which is turning out to exceed my fondest hopes when we started out planning it this summer. But we have a panel on the very subject of this post called “Ebook challenges: competing with free and getting the timing right.” Brian O’Leary is moderating, and the panelists include agent Robert Gottlieb of the Trident Group; marketing director Mindy Stockfield of Hyperion (which published Chris Anderson’s book “Free”); ebook retailer Kobo’s VP Michael Tamblyn, and Steve Ross, who has been a publisher at both Random House and HarperCollins. There’s another panel on “Ebook pricing: what should they cost and why?” which includes the head of Penguin’s ebook publishing efforts, Tim McCall.  I enjoy having The New York Times stamp the topics we selected last August as “current” 72 hours before our show begins, even if just implicitly.

If you like this blog, I know you’ll enjoy Digital Book World. I hope to see you there.

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Here’s a prediction that has almost no chance of being wrong. Every major player in the trade book industry is about to develop a new obsession: how must our business model change when we reach a level of ebook sales that is dynamically disruptive to the print book ecosystem?

This might not be exactly a “tipping point”, since that implies a point at which growth accelerates from some people to most people, or nearly all people. But print publishing will be seriously disrupted long before ebooks are used by “most people.” That’s because print publishing is a “critical mass” business: we need to sell enough to make a sensible print run, to keep the bookstore open, to support the sales organization and the warehouse. Our bestseller lists (with one exception) capture exclusively print sales, our author-publisher contracts and sales terms with accounts are based on the notion that we’re selling a physical object, and the biggest publishers in the land use their scale to perform capital-intensive functions that are, as much as any editorial or marketing expertise, what the authors need them for.

This presents a problem to all the incumbent players. Every powerful company in the print book supply chain: the big publishers, the big retailers (including Amazon!), the wholesalers, and certainly the independent retailers have a huge investment in competencies that revolve around print books. They can design them, jacket them, price them, print them, ship them hither and yon and keep track of each separate ISBN in the package, put them on shelves so customers will find them when they arrive and calculate when to take them off the shelves to send them back. Although there are other skills that these companies have that might port to an all-ebook or ebook-dominant world, none of these do.

Whether the challenges get acute when 20% of the sales of a narrative title are predictably e, or whether the number is 25% or 30%, the day is coming faster and faster. Growth in sales of the simplest kind of ebook — a direct lift of what is published in print — are exceeding the most aggressive predictions. The IDPF just announced that year-over-year ebook sales for August are triple what they were a year ago! Michael Pietsch, Publisher of Little, Brown, reports that 15% of total sales is the level many of their top authors are reaching now.

(Ruminative interlude: it has been my surmise that big authors will have their ebook sales “capped” at a lower level than smaller authors, just because their print books are on sale in so many more places. However, ebook sales are also very sensitive to “brand”; you don’t and can’t “browse” as many titles when you shop electronically, particularly on a device. I know that smaller publishers with less effective total distribution report Amazon sales of 60% and 80% of sales, so their ebook sales proportions are also bound to be much higher. But how the midlist authors of big publishers fare on overall ebook sales relative to the big ones is a question I haven’t asked. I will. Or, I am…)

Meanwhile, ereaders keep improving and proliferating; there have been several announcements of new devices in the past week, including the forthcoming “Nook” from B&N, which will really raise the stakes for Kindle. It will “see” Kindle’s e-ink screen and “raise” one LCD panel for link viewing, plus a 3G connection and Wifi use in B&N stores, all at the same price. B&N has the same power Amazon does to amass a robust list of titles (they have deep contacts with all the publishers) and they have at least as good a skill set for curation and merchandising to make a great shopping experience. And they’re putting their reader front and center in their bookstores (with the free wifi and some special in-store content features) which will expose the concept of the device to many people who don’t shop at Amazon and did not get blasted with a sales pitch every time they bought books.

Barnes & Noble had entertained being the ebook market leader a decade ago, losing interest when the Palm format became the early format frontrunner and wasn’t made available for intermediary distribution (one of the first in a string of futile attempts to install an iTunes device-capture model for book content, and before the iPod, at that.) Then B&N let Amazon get the jump on them in the ebook world with the Kindle; their Nook will be following more than two years later. In the meantime, B&N may have realized what all the big publishers know: that when the customer shifts to ebooks, it threatens all their business models, sunk investments, and longtime marketplace advantages. That, along with the sour experience of trying to lead on ebooks and being frustrated by what was actually a self-destructive policy by Palm, may have fed their apparent disinterest in ebooks until recently.

But it was clear to everybody that the first round of ebook growth shifted power dramatically to Amazon. Publishers have been frustrated and humbled by the Kindle’s rock-bottom, loss-leading pricing of the hottest new titles. And Barnes & Noble had to figure that, recession aside, some of those same-store sales they were missing were from shoppers who stopped coming to them because they had bought a Kindle and were now locked into the Kindle store for their purchasing to use the device.

Incidentally, the sales levels that the IDPF and Michael Pietsch are revealing are for legitimate ebook sales. Nobody knows the size of the pirate ebook market. There are some who guess it is rather small despite the robust number of files available in various hard-to-quell locations on the Internet, but if it includes any significant number of current or recent print-book customers, it only magnifies the impact on the legacy businesses.

There are a multitude of questions facing the industry about the expanding ebook market: how (some, including some highly credible voices, would say “whether”) to use digital rights management (DRM), how to price ebooks, what enhancements or updating can make commercial sense and how to manage them in the marketplace, when they should be made available, and, most important of all in the long run, what the “deal” is for the consumer (and then, based on that, for the author) who is actually licensing something rather than taking possession of something. But the questions about the declining print side are just as acute.

The brick-and-mortar bookstores, led by Barnes & Noble, are going to have to figure out how to keep their stores enticing with might be a smaller selection of print books. Nothing can grow the market for print books in the years to come, but keeping the number of points of purchase as high as possible and the traffic as high as possible are in the industry’s interests. It will require some real creativity to figure out what other activities or product offerings are compatible to keep people coming and how to drive traffic with online activity.

Amazon is not unaffected by this shift, either. Their big early lead in the ebook world was really built on the back of their superior print-book supply chain. From the very beginning, when they put out a database that had out-of-print books in it and then gave the customer a reliable delivery date for what they could sell, they created an unmatched print book shopping experience, provided a) you knew pretty much what you wanted and b) you didn’t have to have it right this minute. Their logistical capabilities are nonpareil but don’t do them nearly as much good with an electronic customer as a physical one. Their grasp on the ebook market really depends on the Kindle remaining a favored device and I think you could get good odds if you wanted to bet on that. Making hardware is not a core competency for them.

As the print business declines, Amazon continues to win if real print book demand falls more slowly than brick-and-mortar availability. But their hammerlock on the ebook market will probably not last; there will be too many better devices and they have to make a concessionary shift to selling the epub format before they can even begin to compete for those customers. They’ll do it someday, and probably soon, but they loosen the grip they have on the Kindle owners the day they do.

Publishers have an interest in continuing to support bookstore survival because the display they get there is great promotion and because being seen by a browser who put themselves at a bookstore section is still a great way to be discovered and bought. And there will still be, for some time, books which are not narrative reading which are simply better in print than in any electronic rendition. Publishers still sell a lot of these books (many of them juveniles) and bookstores, or some appropriate retail setting, are essential to them.

But publishers are going to have to rethink their operations. Sales staffs will probably contract; warehouse space will become redundant; investments in IT systems for the print operation will have to be more rigorously controlled. Publishers will likely combine, of course; the big houses now all gladly take competing publishers into their back office operations to help support them. But downward shifts in scale are not only inevitable, they will probably happen in more dramatic lurches than we’ve known in the past.

Wholesalers and distributors will both win and lose in this shift, but the shape of their business will certainly change. On the one hand, they, like everybody else, will lose sales that they have today because accounts go under and publishers they distribute cease operating. On the other hand, they are in the business of converting fixed operating costs to variable ones, and the number of customers for that proposition will grow as the apparent costs of operations (as a percentage of sales) get out of control at many companies.

Agents and the top 500 authors (an arbitrary number) are most likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of these changes in the short term. Because they themselves are powerful, searchable brands, they could actually sell ebooks themselves off their own websites, keep all the money, and make considerably more than their contracts would give them for ebook sales today even with sales of a quarter or less than the publisher and retailer get for them. (And the sales might not be that low.) I have talked to big publishers about the threat that top authors might just make their ebook deals first (you can cover the market in 4 or 5 stops and branded authors would have their own websites to sell from as well) and offer publishers print-only. Without exception, the big publishers tell me “no way we do the deal on that basis.” But if what is contended in this post is true — that keeping the print business viable is going to depend on amassing volume for it any way you can — they might not actually feel that way when presented with the problem. I think they will be getting the opportunity to make the choice.

I’ve posted on variations of this thought before. I had already decided it needed to be the topic of a keynote panel at Digital Book World. I’ve recruited Ken Brooks, Michael Cader, Larry Kirshbaum, and Evan Schnittman to join me on stage there to discuss it. Continually rebalancing the business between print and electronic, and maintaining the scale to run still-vital print operations, will be a topic of interest for just about all of us in the months and years to come.

Apologies for the paucity of posts lately. I’ve had a lot of work, been traveling, and had a bout of food poisoning. The food poisoning’s about gone, but the work and travel schedule remain robust for the rest of the month. I should become a more reliable correspondent again in a couple of weeks.

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The one subject I didn’t touch in last week’s series of posts on ebooks was DRM: digital rights management, the software that controls what you can do with an ebook (or any other) file. This topic is so fraught with emotion and misplaced certainty that it has “third rail” aspects to it. So we tackle it today with the knowledge that we’re going to annoy many people: there’s no way to avoid it.

I hold two conflicting notions about DRM over time:

1. In the not-so-long run (5 to 10 years), we will be holding very little content in our devices or hard drives. We will access files — those we create and those we obtain — from the cloud. We will see only what we have license to see (as managed by our passwords, our iris scans, our fingerprints…) When that time comes, everything is, effectively, DRMed and, because we will all have our own private stuff up there, we’ll be damn glad it is and damn glad it works. Large elements of today’s DRM concerns will disappear (such as whether you, the purchaser, can access content on multiple devices); some other objections to DRM expressed today will become fights about the license, but not about DRM itself (lending your content or giving it to a friend.)

2. Also in the not-so-long-run, just about all of us will be in social networks that make file sharing (to the extent that we still have the files) with multiple users very efficient and very simple. When we’re all on Facebook and an unprotected file is posted, how many degrees of separation will there be between you and your friends and the entire world? Is it hard to imagine that every digital book would be available free on Facebook? Or through Facebook?

Both of these futures are within sight; very few people would say that either is impossible within a relatively short time. And both are very different from the world we have been living in for the past 15 years or so as the digital revolution has gotten started.

There is definitely a school of thought, which seems most widespread in the library community and among aspiring authors and aspiring publishers (those which are not, or not yet, making tons of money from selling content), that we should live in a DRM-free world. There are, broadly speaking, four lines of argument against DRM:

1. That it is commercially stupid, because it stops sharing and viral spreading of the word about content that will only increase sales. This is the “obscurity is a greater enemy than piracy” school of thought. Evaluating the scanty evidence about the effects of piracy for books so far would suggest that file sharing boosts sales more than it cannibalizes them. “So far” are important operative words.

2. That it violates the “first sale” doctrine, by which when somebody buys a copyrighted physical something, they can then do what they want with it, including lend it or sell it on to somebody else.  This argument is often couched in moral terms suggesting that the sellers of ebooks who put on digital controls are not just being unwise but also unjust (even though in the physical world “copying” is not something you’re permitted to do without paying for permission.)

3. That because of DRM, abuses occur such as people losing the use of files they bought (because they get a new device or computer and it won’t transfer or because the seller of the file, who was storing the backup copy, goes out of business or because, as happened last week, Amazon reaches into your Kindle and erases a book that they just found out they didn’t have the right to sell you.)

4. That it is futile because all DRM can be “hacked”. (Of course, more to the point, DRM can only raise the cost of getting an unlocked file: anybody can create one by re-keying or scanning and OCR-ing a text, the more expensive and cumbersome version of “ripping” a music CD.)

Let’s deal with these in reverse order.

Of course, all DRM can be hacked. The clearest evidence of this is that pirate sites carry books that didn’t ever have a digital file because somebody went to the trouble to scan or re-key them. There is pretty widespread agreement that DRM is like a lock on the door to keep an honest person out, not a security guard that will stop any interloper or thief.

I have been a longtime believer in what is called “social DRM”; the watermarking of information tying the file to its purchaser (or licensor). It is often said that those watermarks can be hacked off as well. True, but if the lock is to remind the honest person not to open the door, it would seem like social DRM should do it. Would you like a file with your name on it (let alone your phone number or your credit card number) on a pirate download site?

Using social DRM would make it easier (although not necessarily easy: interoperability problems are not all due to DRM) for you to share a book with your mother or your spouse, whom you could presumably trust not to spread your branded file far and wide. It would serve as a real deterrent to having the file end up on Facebook.

When Amazon erased 1984 and Animal Farm from their customers’ Kindles, it sparked widespread outrage. It properly raised the spectre of what a malevolent government could do in a connected world. That’s a big problem, but, in my opinion, not primarily an ebook problem.

We are headed for a world where our files are in the cloud and we need to be tethered to access them across our devices. The advantage to that is that we’ll have access to all our files in the cloud all the time on any device wherever we are. The drawback is that the cloud also will have access to our devices and that our files could be made inaccessible at any time. That’s a big problem that requires legal protection, but focusing on ebooks would really miss a much bigger point.

As for inaccessibility that results from device changes or people going out of business, I wonder where people making that argument have been for the past 40 years. Can you play a record on your cassette player? Can you load the program you bought on 5.5″ floppies twenty years ago on your new computer? We have been living with format changes that render our content or software impossible to use for the lifetime of most people living. Why should ebooks be exempt from a problem that existed even before the digital age?

It is absolutely true that ebooks reduce “first sale” flexibility. It is reasonable to say that an ebook “purchase” is not a purchase in the way we used to understand the word: it is a license with real limitations. And DRM is the tool by which the file creator and seller enforces those limits: enabling or disabling print or copying capability; allowing or forbidding some number of pass-alongs or use on multiple computers or devices.

But it is also true that digital files don’t “wear out” and books do. And books aren’t infinitely replicable for free (quite aside from any licensing cost), and unprotected digital files are. And the copying and printing you can’t do with a DRMed ebook file, you also can’t do with a book.

The argument that ebook pricing should reflect reduced useability is a reasonable one, although pricing is really decided by supply and demand, not by reason or rectitude. (History suggests that all new formats — from CDs to VHS tapes to DVDs — arrive at a premium price and it is ratcheted down over time.) The argument that ebook ownership and rights need to replicate the world of the print book is just that: an argument. And I don’t think it is an argument that would move me as a content owner if I believed that enabling that replication might also result in many potential purchasers of the IP just securing it for free.

From my perspective, the “commercial stupidity” argument against DRM is the strongest one of all. But I believe the evidence that supports the idea that it is stupid is about to become dated. Most of our ebook experience so far has been in what we called the “vision” stage of adoption: a time when very few people read ebooks. We have only recently moved into the “establishment” stage, largely enabled by the Kindle and the iPhone. The Kindle and iPhone are devices for the affluent and the Kindle, particularly, appeals to an older demographic. I can’t prove it, but I’d say the more affluent and the older are less likely to steal content than the population at large. (I don’t know an adult that downloads free and illegal music; I don’t know a millennial who doesn’t!)

So we have evidence from a world where, a) very few people read books on screens at all and b) those who do skew older and more affluent, that pushing out free copies — and indeed, the effect of piracy as well — tends to increase sales of a printed book. With evidence of what is really happening sketchy (although many people, I among them, believe the “obscurity is more damaging to sales than piracy” argument has held true so far), trying to attribute reasons for it is a pretty speculative exercise. But I would speculate that people are buying books of things they get free digital files of because most people don’t want to read digital files.As ebook uptake grows and, according to our paridigm of adoption becomes damn near universal over the next ten years or so, that will change. In an ebook-consuming world, a free ebook will satisfy the potential purchaser, not spur them to a sale.

There are ebooks available without DRM. Many publishers, including O’Reilly, Harlequin, and Baen, sell them from their websites. There are some non-DRMed files available from Kindle (according to my best source), but it isn’t easy to figure out which ones they are. Fictionwise once reported that as many as 50% of the ebooks they sold were without DRM (publisher’s choice), but we don’t know how that experience will port over to BN.com, Fictionwise’s new owner. Smashwords, the new open-source ebook developer and retailer (you send them your .doc file; they’ll put your ebook on sale at the price you want to charge) has no DRM option and they say they never will. But at least so far, Smashwords is for self-published content, not for big publishers or big authors.

My hunch is that the biggest authors will continue to insist on DRM and that they are sensible to do that. And that lesser authors will often be comfortable without DRM, and they are probably sensible to do that as well. But as the establishment stage of ebook adoption continues, I’d also expect that the “viral effect” of non-DRMed titles will stop being healthy for sales. This is an argument that still has a long time to run.

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This post is part of a growing set initiated by the Sourcebooks experiment holding back an ebook from simultaneous publication with an upcoming hardcover. It is the second (link to the first below) and will be followed by at least one more, as the conclusion of this post makes clear.

To talk sensibly about the Sourcebooks experiment with Bran Hambric, we need to sketch out some context. Trying to provide it will be the objective of this post. A couple of caveats before we begin:

We are talking here about narrative fiction and non-fiction: books that don’t need illustration or design-intensity to get their content across.

And we are talking about books intended for general audiences: trade books.

The first caveat matters because it describes the technical challenges of presenting the content and the second because it defines the commercial parameters for all the players (and the players will be the subject of a subsequent post.) Content that is delivered to more structured and organized markets, such as we see in academia or corporations, has a very different set of commercial realities.

There will eventually prove to be four distinct stages of ebook adoption, and what makes sense for all the players will change as we move from one to another. The four stages are vision, establishment, transition, and the new marketplace.

The first stage, vision, which started in the late 1990s, will be seen to have ended when the Kindle was launched in November of 2007. This was when ebooks attained a minimal market, substantially less than 1% of total trade sales. In that stage, we had the development of the ePub standard, which could be a permanently useful efficiency for the market. We also had the establishment of basic terms of trade, giving intermediaries approximately the same margins based on the publishers’ suggested retail price that they have had in the physical print-book world. (In my opinion, that will not prove to be so helpful.) Author royalties in publishing’s Big Leagues seem to have settled at either 15% of the publisher’s suggested retail or 25% of the publisher’s revenue, another formula that will be challenged by market forces. We have learned a lot about the futility and frustration surrounding DRM. And publishers have tried to establish ebook pricing that tracks the printed book availability at any time, generally listing the ebook at about the same or a buck or two cheaper than the lowest-priced print edition available.

The second stage, establishment, started with the Kindle. This is when ebooks are much more obviously headed for their ultimate central position in consumer trade book publishing. Ebooks are moving from making a negligible commercial contribution to each book to measureable value, a shift which could be said to have occurred. Many major books are now getting nearly half their Amazon sales from Kindle and other ebook sales are growing as well. Publishers are seeing ebook sales that have tripled as a percentage of their total sales in the past 12-to-18 months. In this stage we are also seeing — and will see more — new players enter the game. Amazon’s device play was followed by software launches from Apple (more than one, including Amazon, from the App Store) and Indigo (a smartphone application called Shortcovers which is part of the iPhone expansion). The Kindle device was preceeded by the Sony Reader; there have been UK-based launches of an independent competitor (Cool-er Reader) and one from Borders UK called Elonex; and strong rumors suggest that both Barnes & Noble and Indigo will deliver their own devices very soon. There are others as well. In this establishment stage, ebook revenues are growing, though they are not yet sufficient to change the overall power relationships in the publishing value chain. But because so many devices and channels are competing to get established and because of the high physical-world discounts, publishers have completely lost control of consumer-facing pricing at the title level.

The third stage, the beginning of which I reckon is about 1-to-3 years off, will be the transition stage. Since I’m inventing this paradigm, I’ll declare arbitrarily that the transition stage will begin when it becomes common for ebook sales to be as much as half the sales of ebookable titles (see the caveats above) and trade houses are seeing their overall unit sales (including the many books, still most juveniles and other highly illustrated titles they all publish that are not “ebookable”) grow steadily from 10% of total sales with no end in sight. In the transition stage, we will start to see real shifts in the value chain. Devices that can only import from a single source (such as the Kindle is today) will fade in importance (if, indeed, there are any left by then.) The number of potential purchase points will explode, as many web sites offer some sort of ebook-readable content, a great deal of it free, but lots of it based on the prices set by publishers. Large horizontal aggregators (Amazon, B&N, and the full-line bookstores that build their offerings from wholesalers) will struggle to hold onto a large and loyal customer base as the vertical web increasingly takes hold. Almost all publishers will be among the zillions of sites offering direct downloads to consumers, many through explicit verticals that sell the books of their competitors (as Macmillan’s tor.com sci-fi site, presciently, is doing today.) DRM will gradually disappear but policing commercial-level piracy will become much more effective because the entire industry will be fighting it. What Scribd is doing to fight piracy — using their archived content to locate pirated material posted by site visitors — will be more widespread and collaborative. There’s a real opportunity for a search engine to offer a service here that somebody will take, and then all will follow.

And the fourth stage, the new marketplace, will have arrived when ebook sales dominate and printed book sales shift primarily to short-run and print-on-demand, except for the very biggest titles. This will happen with accelerating speed when sales pass the point of being 40 or 50 percent digital overall, possibly within a decade. When ebooks become the “norm”, prominent authors will have less need for publishers and ebooks will be routinely updated and enhanced and linked to other content in ways that printed books simply cannot match. In the new marketplace, printed books will have very specific uses: tokens and souvenirs, delivery of certain material that makes great use of large presentation surfaces, and, of course, enabling those who are too old, too poor, or just too stubbornly luddite to make the shift to screen-reading that will have become ubiquitous by then.

In the next post on this subject we will really address the Bran Hambric experiment. We’ll tackle how the various stages of ebook development affect each of the stakeholders: authors, publishers, retailers, wholesalers, and, of course, readers. The context of the stages allows us to make sense of the issues of 1) timing, 2) pricing, 3) DRM, and 4) the content itself, and the marketplace impact of each of the four from the standpoint of each stakeholder. And we’ll see that the challenges Sourcebooks is responding to are symptomatic of what publishers face in the early establishment stage.

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