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Explaining the Turnover versus Discount Calculation
June 1995
by Len Shatzkin
The
Vista Publishing Perspectives report entitled "Profiting from Future
Customers" states that an additional turn adds the same profit for a
bookseller as 15 additional points of discount. In his speeches at the
Conferences presenting the report (in London on June 5 and in New York
on June 26), Mike Shatzkin put the equivalent to a turn of *7* additional
points. For both calculations, he had relied on his father and master
publishing mathematician, Leonard Shatzkin. The difference in the calculations
and the way to do them is explained here by Leonard Shatzkin. I
have been asked to explain why the value of one additional stock turn
was calculated to be fifteen points of discount in the Vista report,
and at a later time, calculated to be only seven points in the talk
delivered by Mike Shatzkin on June 5 and 26. The
shortest, to the point explanation is that I, Len Shatzkin, made an
error in the first calculation. Looking back, the most likely cause
is my stubby fingers pounding the fine keyboard of a pocket calculator. The
fact is that the value of one additional stock turn varies somewhat
depending on the average discount and the rate of stock turn. To clarify
that: Return
on investment depends on the margin earned per dollar invested (discount
divided by cost) multiplied by the number of times the invested dollar
is sold (the stock turn). At
40% discount, the margin (.40 divided by .60) equals 66.7 cents per
dollar. At three turns, the return on investment (66.7 cents times three)
is $2.00 per dollar invested. To reach the same result in two turns,
the margin must equal one dollar on each dollar invested, which it does
at 50% discount (.50 divided by .50 equals one). Therefore,
at 40% discount, at a turn of two, one additional turn is worth 10
points of discount. At
43% discount, the margin per dollar (.43 divided by .57) equals 75.4
cents. At a turn of three, the return on investment (75.4 cents times
three) is $2.26. To achieve that return at a stock turn of two would
require a discount of 52.5% (.525 divided by .475 equals 1.105, times
two equals $2.21). At 43% discount, going from two turns to three turns
is worth 9 and one-half discount points. At
43% discount and four turns, the return on investment is $3.016 per
dollar. To achieve the same return in three turns would require a discount
of 50%. (.50 divided by .50 equals 1.00, which multiplied by three equals
a return on investment of $3.00 per dollar.) At 43% discount, going
from three turns to four turns is worth 7 points of discount. At
43% discount and five turns, the return on investment is $3.77 per
dollar. To achieve the same return in four turns would require a discount
of 48.5%. (.485 divided by .515 equals .941, which multiplied by four
equals a return on investment of $3.76 per dollar.) At 43% discount,
going from four turns to five turns is worth 5.5 points of discount. Calculations
at other discounts and other stock turns can be made easily, providing
you are careful to match the computer keyboard to the fineness of your
fingering.
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