by Mike Shatzkin

For the most part, book publishing is a business that requires looking well into the future. Once books are commissioned, they take months, if not years, to be completed editorially before they can even be introduced into a lengthy production and marketing process, and then be launched into what a publisher usually hopes will be a lengthy period of sales. Up until very recently, readers' interest in the subject matter of a book was a moving target for publishers: would it survive, or grow, between the time of commitment and the time of publication?

Now there are a number of moving targets relating to the industry itself. Most books signed up today will be published in two to three years. By then, will a publisher be able to sell a substantial number of copies as e-books or files for printing on demand? How will these sales affect those of the printed edition? Will the intermediary structure expected to support the project -- reviewers, information sources, libraries, book clubs and booksellers -- be around when the book comes out? And will books that have global markets be translated more often, thanks to technology? And, if they are, will publishers still be financing and controlling the translation process?

Publishers in 2001 face uncertainty every time they sign up a book, but even more so when they make infrastructure investments. How much effort should go into digital content and rights management? How much investment should go into developing new delivery forms and channels? Is this exactly the wrong time to invest in more warehouse space, or exactly the right time to invest in print-on-demand capability in the warehouse?

There are some changes, now becoming obvious, that publishers must make to the 20th-century ways of doing business. Processes need to be digital from commissioning, through development, through delivery. Mastery of e-book and print-on-demand technology, and development of business models that include them, are a must. There must be a rights database and a content database. How quickly legacy contracts need to go into the database or how aggressively a house must digitise its backlist assets are still contentious subjects (and ³all right now² is almost never the correct answer). But re-engineering processes so that all new deals and projects are managed in a digital way is a clear and present challenge to every publisher.

Other decisions can be made only by understanding the changing environment of 21st-century publishing. We cannot claim to know the answers, but we see five Big Questions that every publisher should be constantly asking in order to understand how each publishing business will have to change :