The Shatzkin Files


Ideas triggered by Amazon buying Lexcycle


The acquisition of Lexcycle by Amazon sure got all the digerati’s creative juices flowing. What is becoming increasingly clear is that general trade publishers have a card to play here that the niche publishers can only join in on: creating a collectively-owned ebook “store” that can provide an economic baseline for the emerging ebook marketplace.

Michael Cairns suggests this possibility in his piece this morning. But his focus is on epub and interoperability standards. Mine is, and I believe the publishers’ will be, on pricing throughout the supply chain.

Through laziness, thoughtlessness, carelessness, or inertia (or whatever combination thereof), the ebook supply chain has adopted discount structures that imitate the physical book supply chain. This is daft. There is no comparison between the retailers’ costs and risks associated with physical books and those associated with ebooks. There is no economic justification to providing the same level of discounts. But that’s where we are. Amazon may be arm-twisting to enforce this discount equivalence, but they didn’t think it up. It’s pretty much universal and it came from the publishers in the first place.

As I suggested in my ebook post from London last week, now is the time to change this, before ebook revenues become too great. The college publishers with CourseSmart have mapped out the way to do something about this legally, but the play is pretty obvious. The publishers need to jointly fund and substantially own a virtual retailer whose mission would be to deliver all conceivable ebook formats (whether epub or not!) The store should be competitive with other offerings as to interoperability, lightness of DRM (I favor social only), and customer service.

Establishing such a business would force publishers to figure out how much discount off retail is required to enable the retailer to be profitable. I suspect that number is about 20% and, at that level, would allow modest discounting (5% or 10%) on some titles to the consumer. To stay on the right side of the law, publishers would sell to the new entity on the same terms they sold to everybody else. But the objective here is to limit the ability of retailers to force higher discounts through boycotting publishers or titles with impunity. That is what his happening now. Sometimes the book you’re looking for now on Kindle isn’t there because the publisher won’t agree to Amazon’s discount schedule. I know specifically of one medium-sized trade house for which that is true and, if there’s one, there are probably more.

If publishers don’t do this, the excessive discounts they offer retailers will turn into high standard discounts for consumers that will create inexorable downward price pressure. Amazon may be subsidizing that $9.99 price point they like, but the publishers are subsidizing it too.

This idea can work because six publishers control the lion’s share of bestsellers, which is a big chunk of ebook sales in the short run. Bestsellers is the one “niche” in which the general trade houses have critical mass.

And if this idea can work, another one waits in the wings.

It has been bemoaned that Google and Amazon are on a path to control both discovery and delivery of books in the future. This isn’t even a particularly competitive situation between the two of them, since Google is much more interested in discovery and Amazon is much more interested in delivery.

Because Google is more interested in discovery, they are also not particularly interested in books. They are about “all the world’s information”, not “all the world’s books.” So as robust as Google Book Search is, the company is not focused on making it a competitive book discovery tool compared to Amazon. They are about incorporating the book information to make a superior information discoverytool.

That leaves another opening for publishers where the Big Six have a strong collective position: the metadataassociated with the biggest books.

What if the Big Six also jointly owned a book discovery site: Allaboutthebookyouwant.com. The play there would definitely not be to act as a retailer, but rather to help consumers find the book and the retailer that is best for them. All retailers that “play” would have their inventory and pricing made transparent on the site which would contain a publisher-assisted best possible aggregate of enriched metadata (excerpts, stories behind the book, video support, etc.) 

This initiative could solve a number of problems for the big publishers. It would create a “Switzerland” for enriched metadata: a place to make it available which would help all the online booksellers. To the extent that it grew in consumer acceptance, it would reduce the danger of being being buried or victimized by bad data on a retailer site (think of the recent brouhaha about the “adult” books on Amazon). It would enable the consumer to shop across many book retailers at the same time. And the referral fees the site could earn would reduce the degree to which it needed to be subsidized as a marketing expense.

The current effort by several general trade publishers to drive traffic to their own house-branded web sites is misguided and doomed. But Amazon (and Shelfari, GoodReads, LibraryThing, and our new entrant, Filedby.com) have demonstrated that sites with information across the trade book spectrum have real consumer appeal. With the support of the big publishers from the earliest possible moment to make the high-profile general trade books visible, at least a large portion of the discovery traffic could be liberated from being captive to Amazon, Google, or anybody else. And the consumer could be assured that the information she is getting on purchasing was being offered in her best interest, not based on what a retailer is trying to push.

Worth noting: the ebook site Smashwords already sells ebooks at 15% margin, returning 85% of the publisher- or author-set retail price to the content owner. Up until now, Smashwords has been about author-generated ebooks; it has not pushed out an offer to publishers. And there are elements of Smashwords’s solution — DRM free, working from PDFs and doc files — that might not be exactly what publishers would want . But they might be the ebook solution, and it might be close to being in place. Smashwords may be the game-changer but the publishers and public haven’t discovered it yet.

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  • http://vielmetti.typepad.com Edward Vielmetti

    “allaboutthebookyouwant.com” can be similar to isbn.nu

    “We offer a quick way to compare the prices of any in-print and many out-of-print books at over a dozen online bookstores. You can view the results with or without the shipping costs of a single book, and also find the fastest source for a book from ordering to delivery.”

    Lots of room for innovation in this world, especially if you come from the library (and not bookstore) world and can extend these resources to inter-library loan, netflix-style queued library checkouts, or even locate in a friend’s library.

    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Ed: good info. Thanks.

  • http://ebooktest.blogspot.com Mike Cane
    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Mike Cane: great idea. The only part I wonder about is the advertising support. Would it amount to much? That’s hard to tell.

      • http://ebooktest.blogspot.com Mike Cane

        That’s another argument for The Pirate Bay to do it. They don’t seem to be motivated by money.

      • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

        Mike Cane, in a discussion a month or two ago on the 26th Story blog, I said I figured that Michael Cader and Seth Godin would set up a web site that told everybody about all the free and near-free ebooks: Random House giveaways on Stanza, the monthly $1 sci-fi book from Hachette, etc. The publishers will give enough ebooks away in the next few years (to promote print-book sales) that people would be able to do all their reading near-free without even going to Google-Sony public domain! So Pirate Bay could have plenty to do.

  • http://www.wetasphalt.com Eric Rosenfield

    I find the notion that publishers SHOULDN’T be giving deep discounts on ebooks sounds like bull. With ebooks you don’t have printing costs, distribution costs are minimal, you don’t have to give as big a cut to bookstores (ebook stores don’t pay rent) and you don’t have to worry about unsold book returns. That all doesn’t entitle me to a discount? Are you kidding?

    Your post even inspired me to right this post:
    http://www.wetasphalt.com/?q=content/show-us-numbers

    In which I ask publishers to show us the numbers if they want us to believe them.

    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Eric,

      We may disagree, but you also misunderstand me.

      In the post I inspired, you are sure the book can cost less because with the ebook the costs of distribution and the cut to the bookstore are eliminated. But the “discount” I was referring to, and trying to reduce, IS the cut to the bookstore. So, in effect, reducing that discount enables the publisher to lower the price being charged to the consumer at the publisher’s behest.

      It is an open question whether free or very cheap content will make it impossible for authors and publishers to make a living in the future. But it isn’t the publishers’ job to hasten their own demise by giving away margin to intermediaries that don’t justify it. That’s my point.

      • http://www.wetasphalt.com Eric Rosenfield

        Ah. I did misunderstand. Sorry.

        Yes, Amazon should not get as big a discount for ebooks as they do for print books. That’s crazy. The amount it costs for them to store the print books alone completely dwarfs whatever it costs them to store an ebook on a harddrive.

        The sad part is that because the Kindle is the most popular ebook reader and the Kindle only really reads Kindle ebooks, Amazon has something of a monopoly and can dictate terms. Still, if I were a publisher, I’d be looking at putting my books at Fictionwise instead.

      • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

        Eric,

        Publishers should put their ebooks onto every platform and through every distribution channel that they possibly can. That’s their obligation to the author. Skipping an ebook channel is like skipping a bookstore in the print world.

        Amazon didn’t invent the idea that discounts would be the same for ebooks; publishers did. And actually, it makes sense while the channels are building for publishers to subsidize that. But it is going to stop making sense very soon.

  • http://www.klopotek.com Gregor Wolf, Klopotek CTO

    Isn’t that typical?

    We have an eBook HYPE, and hype means that there is a big opportunity out there for new business, but there is also a big thread: Often newcomers make the business and no longer the traditional players. And we? We discuss discounts! In this week, we had the “Publishers’ Forum” in Berlin, a conference on the future of Publishing, now in its 6th year and well recognized.

    One of the speakers cited a leading US economist (who was it?):
    “It is the most common mistake to calculate prices for products based on production costs plus margin. What you really need to do is to determine a price, which is accepted by the market and produce the product in such a way that your costs fit”.

    So far, a drastic view on the question what an eBook can cost and who gets which part of the price in the supply chain. Surely, this leads us immediately to the point how publishers produce digital products (“produce in such a way that your costs fit”).

    Mike, you come to the point that digital production IS cheaper and allows other prices and discounts. Yes, IF you have a well working XML content management system, a native XML workflow, a truly media neutral content repository. Yes, then an eBook is just another output of yet another format (not really, as we will see, but close to…).

    Some remarks from speakers at the Publishers’ Forum:

    - Starting with XML is the only way to cost effectively create flexible content
    -Flexible Content can be manipulated for any marketing use or message
    - Flexible Content leads to custom applications for any number of uses including new or additional content.

    Evan Schmittman, OUP.

    This is difficult, if your digital content is page-formatted PDF… (funny that PDF stands for Portable Document Format, and now we find that it isn’t portable … to an eBook reader). My true believe is that the eBook hype and the immediate consequences for efficient production and the required new quality will soon create winners and losers. To make it more difficult, an eBook can be much more than a “print on a digital reader” and it will soon turn out, who can produce better eBooks, who is faster and who is more efficient. In other words:

    “These aren’t print books you happen to sell digitally; these are digital books you might happen to also sell in print.”

    Andrew Savikas, O’Really

    “The first TV shows were basically radio programs on the television — until someone realized that TV was a whole new medium. Ebooks should not just be print books delivered electronically.”

    Joe Wikert, O’Reilly

    It IS time to DO TRUE digital workflows, or you will produce NO eBooks, TOO EXPENSIVE eBooks or just POOR eBooks. And the others are waiting to fill the gap. Who thinks that it is still time to discuss the pros and cons, may soon find out that others are eating from his table. Or the whole table ;-) Or, to say it with Evan Schnittman’s words (citation from Nitzsche):

    “YOU WILL NEVER GET THE CROWD TO SHOUT “HOSANNA!” UNTIL YOU RIDE INTO TOWN ON AN ASS.”

    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Gregor, thanks for your comments. As you at Klopotek well know, as sponsors of our StartWithXML project in the US, we’re firm believers that a digital workflow is necessary for publishers to realize the full potential of their content. But I’d make two points coming from yours:

      1. Enhanced ebooks will be wonderful, and indeed, the book will morph into many different things over time. But the first challenge, so far umet, is to at least make it possible for people to choose between reading conventional books in paper or on the device of their choice.

      2. Making enhanced ebooks profitably depends on an overall approach (such as was outlined in a 3-part series on this blog) to gathering and databasing content. Just having a digital workflow alone won’t do it.

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  • http://gravitationalpull.net/wp/ Aaron Pressman

    Mike,

    Perhaps your point of view is relevant and useful for deep-in-the-know publishing insiders but it’s almost gibberish to me, an ordinary book buyer or “customer” — aka a member of the group of people who collectively pay for all the salaries, bonuses, costs and profits of the entire industry. And, frankly, I find your discussion of pricing a little weird.

    To cut to the bottom line: an ebook is worth far less than a print book to a customer. A print book can be lent to multiple readers, can be read by any person without requiring expensive gadgetry and can be sold on the used book market. At least in the case of Sony and Amazon’s ebook stores, an ebook cannot be lent, cannot be read without a particular expensive gadget and, obviously, cannot be resold. There are ways in which ebooks are arguably superior, like the ability to resize the font or search for any word, but these tend to be far more amorphous and less clearly (if at all) related to purchase and sale values.

    Your post and a few others others have made me think that Amazon’s current ebook play is much like the original model of the Barnes & Noble superstore expansion of the prior few decades. Use your corporate deep pockets to sell goods at deep discounts, even at a loss, as you gain market share and push competitors out of business. Once you’re established as the leader, eliminate most of the discounting. Do you remember when all paperbacks and many hardcovers beyond the best sellers at B&N were discounted? Now almost nothing in the stores is discounted unless you pay to join the company’s $25/year membership program.

    Amazon is already creeping up ebook prices away from $9.99, especially for popular books not on the NYT best seller list. Sometime best-seller medical thriller writer Michael Palmer’s new book, The Second Opinion, is $16.52 in print and $14.27 on the Kindle, for example. As a customer, an ebook that is less than 15% off the price of the hardcover is not appealing. In many other cases, Kindle prices continue to track the hard cover price even after a much cheaper paperback edition is available.

    But the most important bottom line, of course, is the size of the whole market. Book industry sales in the U.S. have not even kept up with inflation over the past six years, according to the Association of American Publishers, rising at a 1.6% annual rate from 2002 to 2008. I’m also bet there were hefty price increases in that period so the minimal revenue growth is probably on top of a decline in the actual number of books sold.

    Like the newspaper, radio, or broadcast television industries, the book publishers ought to realize that there are no guarantees in the free market that entitle you to maintain your current level of sales or profits forever. A forward-looking, smart analysis would be figuring out how to capitalize on new technologies or changing tastes to give customers what they want. I think it’s fair to say that the wireless instant purchasing aspect of Amazon’s Kindle is an example of this and, at least so far, it hasn’t been simply an excuse to raise prices. As a result, as Amazon has noted repeatedly, Kindle customers buy considerably more total books, print and “e,” than they did before they had a Kindle.

    Aaron

    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Aaron, thanks for your note. Let me try to make the gibberish comprehensible and address your comments.

      First of all, I am suspecting a misunderstanding that arose with another commenter earlier. When I say publishers should “reduce discounts”, I mean they should “reduce discounts to retailers.” I am not suggesting that prices be higher to consumers. Reducing intermediary discounts could enable uniform lower prices to consumers. I want to make sure that’ sclear.

      Amazon is definitely trying to build the largest possible audience “locked in” to Kindle, a perfectly reasonable strategy from their perspective. They are actually selling some ebooks at a loss to make that $9.99 price, but they only seem inclined to create loss-leaders of sure bestsellers. Publishers (most often) “sell” to Kindle at 50% off the publisher’s suggested list price, which is usually near the printed book price. In the case you cited of “The Second Opinion”, St. Martin’s has set a retail price of $25.95 for both the book and the ebook (they are unusual that way, setting ebook prices at par with print). Amazon is buying both print and Kindle for around $13. So they’re choosing to make a bit less margin on the Kindle edition than on the print, but they’re not choosing to take the loss on this one to make it $9.99.

      The cases where Kindle prices track the hardcover instead of the paperback are either mistakes by Amazon or they indicate that the publisher, for whatever reason, chose to price the ebook based on the hardcover even when a paperback is available.

      You are correct that unit book sales are flat at best and that small sales increases have been achieved by price increases. Publishers are well aware that their market is not growing. The market to pay for consumer content is not growing.

      Some recent research by Michael Cader indicates that Kindle readers are a) older and b) often handicapped by either arthritis or bad vision that makes the Kindle far preferable to them than paper books: useful rather than frustrating. That may be the explanation for the reported increased total purchases by Kindle owners (who are theoretically continuing to buy paper books for their grandchildren.)

      Looking at the experience of the newspaper, radio, or broadcast TV industries is not particularly relevant. They are all advertising-driven; book publishers sell their content without subsidy to the end user. The other industries were willing to give their content away to get more audience in the hopes that ad revenues would make the decision commercially viable. But ad pricing is falling on the Net, so that bet has come up bad. Book publishers are competing with the free content — provided by ad-driven publishers and by other sources ranging from Google books to bloggers — and trying to maintain a pricing model. When you’re competing with free, it might not feel that it would help you much to cut a price from $13 to $10 or $8.

      O’Reilly Media had an iPhone book they sold in print and through the App Store. Their ebook price is a fraction of the print price (maybe 25%) and they found that when they raised it, sales fell off the table. That isolated example tends to support your point of view. But many publishers are skeptical that the reading public would absorb more books if only they were cheaper (remember: ebooks are free from the library, and you don’t have to go there in person to pick them up or drop them off.) They don’t want to participate in the collective devaluing of content by rushing to sell it cheaper. And, if they did, since authors work on a percentage of the publishers’ price or take, they’d likely face a lot of pressure from their author base to compensate the authors differently.

      Everything you say about the value proposition of ebooks and how they don’t give you everything a printed book does is logical. But it is not self-evident that total sales or revenues would grow if prices were dramatically cut. More experiences like O’Reilly’s, though, might change that. If they occur.

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    • http://www.idealog.com/ Mike Shatzkin

      Hmmm… Not sure whether this person is confusing me with somebody else or has trouble reading. I can get where they got the 1997 phone book idea (wrong), but I actually advocate that publishers DO sell ebooks directly, so I’m not sure where THAT piece of misunderstanding comes from.

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