The Shatzkin Files


Clever moves all around in the B&N and Amazon chess game


Readers who have been following publishing’s digital transition for two years or more will recall the situation in 2010 when five of publishing’s Big Six switched over from selling their ebooks on wholesale terms, by which the retailer sets the price to the consumer, to agency terms, by which the publisher sets a price that prevails across all retailers. Random House stayed out.

That decision seemed to puzzle many observers despite the realities for the publishers. Making the change required actually reducing per-unit revenues to the publisher (and author) while at the same time making each unit more expensive to the consumer, so it was done by what was then called the “Agency Five” at some sacrifice (in their view) for the greater good (in their view) of the industry. Agency protected weaker ebook retailers — Barnes & Noble, Kobo, and Google as well as independents — from having to compete with the deep-pocketed Amazon’s loss-leader pricing strategies. The immediate payoff was the opportunity to sell through Apple’s fledgling iBookstore.

As we explained at the time, Random House’s choice was transparently in their short-term self-interest. It was understandable that their competitive cohort, who saw themselves making a sacrifice on behalf of the industry’s long-term future, were unhappy that the biggest player among them was staying out. But it was a bit hard for me to understand what was so hard for everybody else to understand about why Random House did what they did. (Random House switched over to selling on the agency model in March, 2011.)

Those times are recalled for me by the recent round of indignation and analysis over the jockeying among the retailing competitors over the titles published by Amazon. Everybody is just acting in their own best interest. There really isn’t much mysterious about anybody’s behavior.

We could say the most recent set of events was begun by Amazon’s escalating efforts to capture titles for ebook rendering exclusively on the Kindle platform. They were apparently doing this two ways: by signing up authors directly for their own imprints and by offering self-published authors financial incentives — such as paid participation in their lending library program — for making their ebook a Kindle exclusive.

For the books they signed directly, Amazon recognized that it might not be the most comfortable sales call in the world for any rep to pitch these books to B&N’s buyers. Representing the books of every bookseller’s biggest competitor would be a challenge but it was one that Houghton Mifflin Harcourt decided to attempt. Last year it was announced that HMH had taken the opportunity to license the Amazon-originated titles in paperback. Major publishers had often expressed the view that publishing in print without ebook rights was a non-starter for them. HMH hoped that their efforts wouldn’t be viewed in that light since it is not considered unusual (although I’m not sure how often it has happened) for ebook rights to remain with the hardcover publisher when paperback rights are licensed.

More heat was generated when the Kindle Fire debuted with some graphic novel content delivered exclusively to it. When Barnes & Noble pulled the paper versions of those books off their store shelves, they explained that their policy would be to refuse to stock the print version of something not offered to them for sale “in all formats”.

The message at the time seemed clear. If Amazon wanted to sign up books directly and sell them broadly, they couldn’t maintain a Kindle monopoly on those titles. Undoubtedly, it was becoming clearer and clearer to Amazon that getting broader distribution for printed books was an important element if they wanted to sign up important books. Let’s remember that Larry Kirshbaum had been brought on board in June to sign up big titles. He was the first person to work at Amazon who had the relationships and the experience to tell them what it would take to succeed in those efforts.

But things were dynamic at B&N as well. With Borders gone, they have become the only player at scale able to offer print book merchandising. There is an increasing awareness of how important print display still is to “making” a book. It is very likely that inside B&N there has been increasing appreciation of the power of their position.

There is complementarity here. Amazon had a dominant position with Kindle before the Nook arrived that has been eroding since then due to increased competition. They’re still more than half the ebook sales in the US, but they want to shore up their position. Using their strength to get Kindle exclusives is a sensible way to do that.

At the same time, the leverage Barnes & Noble has from its print store dominance is perhaps at its peak. In their case this isn’t because competition in their channel is likely to erode their share. It is a continuation of the consumer trend of shifting to online buying and ebook reading that will dilute the importance of brick-and-mortar even if B&N’s share remains very high. So they too want to use the leverage of that position to strengthen themselves while they can.

Both Amazon and B&N demonstrate the power of their position by looking for an increased share of the book sales revenue from publishers.

Anyhow, Amazon continued to work on this problem of getting the books they acquired directly from authors into broader store distribution. In January, they expanded the first-look licensing deal they had with HMH and announced the New Harvest imprint there to deliver paperback editions of their books to broader distribution. And, proving they’d been listening to what Barnes & Noble said earlier, they announced that New Harvest books would have ebooks made available in formats that would enable their sale in all ebook channels.

It took Barnes & Noble less than a week to respond. Ignoring Amazon’s willingness to make the new imprint books available as ebooks, they instead focused on the continuing programs Amazon had that kept other titles as Kindle exclusives. B&N announced that they wouldn’t carry any Amazon-originated titles in their stores, although they would make them available online and as ebooks. Of course, that “offer” gave Amazon precisely what they didn’t care about (BN.com online sales) or didn’t really want (Nook availability) and denied them what they were really after (bookstore shelf and display space).

Pretty quickly, both Daily Finance and Time Business found fault with Barnes & Noble’s move. It was seen as boneheaded for a retailer in the declining brick-and-mortar space to decline to stock some books that might sell. It was even suggested by some that this was an “opening” for Barnes & Noble’s terrestrial competitors to carry attractive Amazon titles, with the implication that this could help them steal customers from B&N.

But Barnes & Noble’s competitors actually saw things the same way that B&N did. The independent store and publisher, Melville House, was quickly supportive. A few days later, the Canadian chain Indigo (which occupies the same dominant position there that B&N does in the US) and the second-ranked US chain, Books-A-Million, announced that their policies would mirror B&N’s.

The day that B&N announced they wouldn’t carry the Amazon books, a reporter called me for comment. This reporter clearly expected me to castigate B&N for shortsightedness. I think he was surprised when I told him I thought the policy made complete strategic sense for them.

The bottom line here is that as Amazon’s power to sign up books away from the major publishers grows, the retailers who depend on publishers for a flow of commercial product suffer along with the publishers. B&N saw — and Indigo and Melville House and Books-a-Million saw — that Amazon wanted bookstore distribution to enable them to sign up more titles directly. Even though those titles would be made available to them, they see themselves as strengthening their enemy when they stock those books.

B&N’s decision seems to me like the right move for them. Most very regular bookstore customers aren’t really surprised if any particular store doesn’t have any particular book. Indeed, the impossibility of stocking everything anybody might ask for in a store is part of the reason that online bookselling is such a useful service. In this day and age, most people who want a particular book don’t go to a bookstore to buy it; they just order it online. They go to bookstores to browse and shop and choose from what is within the store. So, yes, there may be some disappointed customers if B&N doesn’t have a high-profile Amazon title, but I don’t think that disappointment will be widespread.

On the other hand, authors and agents who might have considered an Amazon publishing deal will have to think twice if they know very few bookstores will carry it. Amazon can do some remarkable things to sell books to their mammoth online customer base and that won’t change. But there is both a practical and a vanity aspect to getting store display that will still be seen as indispensible by many authors and agents who otherwise might have taken the leap to sign with the newest big checkbook in town.

Amazon still has the biggest forces, and time, on its side. eBook reading will continue to grow and Kindle will remain the most powerful platform as it does. More and more print buying will shift from stores to online and nobody has mounted meaningful competition to Amazon in the online print channel. The Amazon online experience for search and selection and delivery remains — in this consumer’s opinion — far and away the best. Their reach beyond books to so many other product lines gives them further advantages in many ways, including fueling their Amazon Prime program, which is an unmatched tool to encourage customer loyalty. The shelf space for books at B&N will almost certainly continue to decline and the leverage that comes along with it will do the same.

This tactical decision will not change the overall course of history. Neither did Random House’s decision to postpone moving to agency for a year after everybody else did. But, just like Random House’s decision, everything Amazon and Barnes & Noble (and the retailers that followed them) have done is actually perfectly sensible when viewed from the perspective of their own self-interest. There are a lot of smart people engaged in a pitched battle here. Outside observers would be well-advised to keep that in mind as they evaluate the moves they make.

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  • Epertase

    This is a brilliant dissertation on BN vs Amazon that everyone should read. My question: Is there room for the smaller presses to squeeze in or will they all be squeezed out as this battle wages? 

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      Thanks for the compliment. The better Barnes & Noble does (and the better every other retailer does; in other words, the more diversity there is in the retail marketplace) the more all publishers, large and small, are helped. The more the customer base is concentrated with Amazon, the less reason any author would have to need any publisher but them.

      Mike

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  • Monica Shaughnessy

    Next move on the chess board: Amazon to open retail store in Seattle.

    “Insider sources” say the store will showcase the Kindle line and imprint titles – sort of like a cross between the Apple Genius Bar and a boutique bookstore. If this is true, B&N’s brick and mortar hold on Amazon goes away. Poof!

    I have no idea what the new Amazon store will look like, but if Kirshbaum’s smart (which I know he is), he’ll guide them into building the bookstore of the future and not a watered-down version of B. Dalton. If he succeeds, this move will leave the rest of the industry playing catch up.

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      I am personally very skeptical about this store thing. Maybe they’ll do something as a sort of showcase, but I can’t see them going into this business in a big way. Two reasons:

      1. Amazon trades at well over 100 times earnings. That’s a huge “Internet” multiple. Being in retail, unless you have VERY special sauce, could just crash their stock.

      2. Don’t look at Apple to disprove me. Apple very consciously builds very HIGH margin products and forces everybody else to keep the prices high. Amazon has precisely the opposite philosophy and, in fact, made fun of Apple (and the publishers) on their web site when they announced the Fire precisely for keeping prices high while bragging that they keep prices low. Great philosophy, but not one that harmonizes with successful retail stores.
      But I don’t actually *know* anything. We’ll see if Amazon’s figured out something I haven’t. They certainly might.

      Mike

  • http://moonbridgebooks.com/ Linda Austin

    I agree with your assessment, but think Amazon is not as benign as they seem in this article. Behind consumer radar, Amazon has been quite the bully, attempting to force other publishing services into using them exclusively for sales, incurring a lawsuit (Booklocker) and nasty feelings (Lightning Source authors, Goodreads). Trad pubs, B&N and indie bookstores see what’s going on and they don’t want to play along.

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      I am seldom accused of being too kind to Amazon, but I don’t disagree with anything you said. I just don’t think they’re where they are *because* they are bullies. I think they are where they are *despite* the fact that they’re bullies. Most of their success is really due to great strategy and great execution.

      Mike

  • Robert French

    Great to see such a common sense post about the industry. Long term, the big six are dead in the water because I do not think they have the agility to take advantage of the changes that that ebook and print technology have wrought. I also think that the retailers, such as are left, are underestimating the speed with which ereaders will continue to be adopted.

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      You say “long term”. That recalls to me that the great economist and philosopher John Maynard Keynes said “in the long run, we’re all dead”.
      The Big Six, and all today’s book publishers, were built to take advantage of an ecosystem of bookstores that could sell their goods. That was their raison d’etre. It was their oxygen. It would require more than agility, I think, to suddenly prepare them to breathe ammonia instead of oxygen.

      Challenging days are ahead. Inventing a whole new paradigm requires more than just agility.

      Mike

  • Shirley Martin

    You might find it interesting to note that Indigo Books in Canada has followed suit with Barnes &  Noble!  Monopoly isn’t always a winning game.

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      Indigo and Books-A-Million and the American Booksellers Association have all taken pretty much the same position. There has been an effective uniting of the brick-and-mortar world against the giant of the online world. These are competitors that never particularly agreed on much before.
      Mike

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  • Shevi Arnold

    Very interesting article. 

    Do you suppose this is why Amazon is talking about creating brick-and-mortar stores? I don’t think they’ll sell physical books. My suspicion is that they will be designed to sell Kindles and Amazon’s phones (perhaps TVs) in an effort to get consumers to sign up for Amazon Prime. That buys customer loyalty, but it would be a thorn in BN’s side, if the Amazon store also sold Amazon titles–and only Amazon titles. Instead of writers who signed with Amazon feeling left out because their books weren’t on display in a brick-and-mortar store, writers who didn’t sign with Amazon could be annoyed that their books weren’t on display in the fancier Amazon stores, which I suspect would mimic Apple stores. 

    Things are about to get very interesting, very fast. 

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      I’ve expressed my skepticism about the “Amazon stores” idea, perhaps even elsewhere in this comment string.

      Amazon has the deep pockets to do whatever they want, but two things mitigate against this in my mind. One is their stock price, which has a mammoth multiple that entering a brick-and-mortar business could threaten. The other is their insistence on very tight margins for the products. Apple has very FAT margins; that really helps the economics of a retail operation. Amazon doesn’t have that cushion.

      But I’m surely no Amazon insider. Perhaps they’ve figured something out. Or perhaps I’m just wrong.

      Mike

  • http://mindtherant.blogspot.com/ MindTheRant

    Mike –

    As always, I appreciate your hard-nosed objectivity in discussing the publishing and bookselling industry.  It’s why I read you.

    Your piece reminded me of one I read by Laura Hazard Owen in PaidContent last November, “The Truth About Amazon Publishing” (http://paidcontent.org/article/419-the-truth-about-amazon-publishing/P0/), which was equally hard-nosed in suggesting that Amazon hadn’t yet enjoyed any real success in non-ebook publishing — at least not if you excluded Seth Godin’s titles from the now-shuttered Domino Project.  Her article elicited some indignant comments by Amazon fans (including authors who self-publish through Amazon) suggesting that printed books were passé and Amazon was focused on the future.

    So it’s curious that Amazon, having shown old guard publishers how to publish ebooks — having shown them how to shed publishing’s outmoded past and embrace its 21st century possibilities — still wants so badly to be an analog success.  Though I agree with you wholeheartedly that Jeff Bezos has no interest in starting a chain of Amazon stores, book or otherwise, he still seems keen on out-publishing the old guard on its own terms (possibly the same way Rupert Murdoch seems keen on out-publishing the New York Times on its own terms with the Wall Street Journal).  Could it be that deep down the discreet charm of old guard publishing holds the same allure for Bezos as it does for Amanda Hocking?

    • /blog Mike Shatzkin

      I don’t think I agree that Amazon is focused on succeeding in the analog realm. That’s not how I read their motivation at all.

      They find, as booksellers have found before, that they have a customer base that will, on its own, support some publishing. So they publish to it and reap the dual benefits of making more margin on the books and, sometimes, having a book that nobody else has to sell. This isn’t new. Barnes & Noble does it a lot. Borders did it. AMS (a wholesaler that stocked price clubs) did it.

      In the ebook business, Amazon was 90% for a while and is still well more than half. They believe that having books for Kindle that aren’t available from other ebook retailers will sell more Kindles and lock in more customers. And they have a big enough customer base to make that work economically. So it is a small thing for them economically, but probably profitable, and it is effectively marketing for the device and the store.
      They were always leaving money on the table not getting bookstore distribution. (They could do online print through CreateSpace.) It was a year ago that they worked out the first deal with Houghton Mifflin Harcourt to get some. Then they got more ambitious about the kind of books they’d go after, still, I’m sure, most interested in having their own proprietary content. But they bumped into reality, which is that not enough of the sales have moved online yet for big authors to give up real
      brick-and-mortar distribution, pretty much regardless of the advance you
      would offer them. They wouldn’t necessarily have believed that a priori.

      So they tried to engineer a way to deal with it and, the way I read it, B&N
      has blocked them. For now, authors will be hard for Amazon to sign up.

      But more of the industry’s share moves to Amazon every day. Until some
      force changes that, time is on their side.

      Mike

      • http://mindtherant.blogspot.com/ MindTheRant

        Thank you for the in-depth explanation.  Since you’re much more plugged into the publishing world than I am I defer to your judgment.

        Not to be a noodge, though, but when you say “I don’t think I agree that Amazon is focused on succeeding in the analog realm” is that the same thing as saying that Larry Kirshbaum understood when Amazon hired him that his focus as a publisher was to be on epublishing and that printed books were to be a secondary matter?  Or is the heart of the matter that Amazon, Mr. Kirshbaum, and those in the know understand we’re still living in a brief transitional period where printed books remain dominant and that the futurists in the business are simply biding their time for the tide to turn?

        To say that Amazon wouldn’t necessarily have believe a priori that
        “not enough of the sales have moved online yet for big authors to give up
        real brick-and-mortar distribution, pretty much regardless of the
        advance you
        would offer them” — surely this is a subject about which Mr. Kirshbaum could have enlightened them.  Not to mention the fear and loathing that Amazon has instilled in the Big 6, in B&N, and in the bookstore trade in general.  (Though it’s hard to imagine Jeff Bezos needed any counsel on that score.)

        So does it all come down to Amazon just getting a little ahead of themselves?  And that I was mistaken in concluding that hiring an experienced eastern establishment publishing guru like Larry Kirshbaum meant Amazon wanted to be taken seriously (by publishers, by booksellers, by authors, by readers) as a trade publisher in the fullest sense of that word?

      • /blog Mike Shatzkin

        Look, these things are tough to time and Larry hasn’t exactly come up completely empty. This are all pretty subtle moves from the position you’re in. First you’re selling enough books and getting enough author interest that you figure with a Top Dog you can REALLY get some big ones. He thinks so too.

        Then you do get some *sorta* big ones but if you just do a little bit more, like get some bookstore distribution, you can get some *really* big ones. Or maybe it was always Larry’s plan to graft on the bookstore distribution side but they didn’t completely anticipate the politics as they played out.
        Hard to tell exactly. I’m just saying that all these things that have happened don’t necessarily add up to some grand ambition and I tend to think they were each player just working with what they had in their hand at any particular round of betting.

        Mike

      • http://mindtherant.blogspot.com/ MindTheRant

         Mike –

        Please understand — I didn’t bring Mr. Kirshbaum into my comments as a veiled criticism of his abilities, which I have no reason to believe are anything but ample.  I’m much more curious about what his boss, Jeff Bezos, thinks he’s doing by trying to build what appears to be (I don’t know what else to call it) a major mainstream publishing house.

        I’m familiar with the strategy — as a Barnes & Noble.com merchandiser I did plenty of promotions of books published by B&N’s Sterling imprint, where the margins were wider and deeper discounting was painless.  But until Sterling published the Swedish thriller Three Seconds a couple of years ago in an effort to cash in on the Stieg Larsson boom *everything* it put out was non-fiction … and I find it interesting that so far Amazon seems to have enjoyed more success publishing non-fiction than fiction.

        I’ve also heard rumors that Sterling may be on the block.  So it would be an odd turn of events to have B&N getting out of physical book publishing while Amazon is jumping in.

      • /blog Mike Shatzkin

        First of all, Sterling *is* definitely on the block. I have heard rumors that the closing will be end of February, and I’ve heard end of March. But I haven’t heard anything from anybody in a position of authority to know. I’m reporting hearsay, except for the fact that they are for sale, which has been publicly announced.

        I think Amazon sees the addition of Kirshbaum as “incremental.” They already have imprints. They’re already publishing. They deemed the time was right to start signing some bigger authors, such as Larry can do. They have had some limited success so far. I don’t know how it stacks up against their expectations. But Larry might be accomplishing what they want getting 10 books the first year and 20 the second year. Which I imagine he’ll do.
        Mike

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